中部地区省际人口流出对流出地经济影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-17 23:26

本文选题：中部地区 + 省际人口流出　；参考：《人口学刊》2017年05期

【摘要】：文章基于"五普"、"六普"、2005年和2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,从人口流出的角度分析中部各省人口流出的变动特征,结果发现21世纪以来中部总体流出人口规模增速虽有上升,但相对全国有所放缓,中部各省中流出人口规模大的省份有流出人口规模增速放缓的趋势,而规模小的省份有增速加快的趋势,中部省际流出人口的流向选择具有明显的区域聚集效应,流向分布以湖南、安徽和江西最为集中,以山西、河南最为分散。基于2002~2012年面板数据建立中部省际人口流出对流出地经济影响的变系数面板数据模型,发现中部省际人口流出对中部地区总体经济增长具有微弱负向影响;中部省际人口流出不利于缩小中部与东部地区的经济差距;此外,中部省际人口流出在一定程度上阻碍了中部地区产业结构的转型和升级,人口流出总体上降低了第三产业GDP产值比重,相对增加第一和第二产业GDP产值比重。中部地区经济水平的相对落后导致中部地区大规模的人口流出,而人口流出又进一步阻碍了中部地区的经济发展。因此,地方政府有必要加强对中部经济发展的重视,缓解中部大量人才外流现象,同时中部人口流出对各省的影响不一,政策制定还需因地制宜。
[Abstract]:Based on the "five popular", "six popular" and the national 1% population sample survey data in 2005 and 2015, this paper analyzes the changing characteristics of the population outflow from the central provinces from the point of view of population outflow. The results show that the growth rate of the total outflow population in the central region has increased since the 21st century. But relative to the national slowdown, the provinces with large outflow population in the central provinces have a tendency to slow down the growth rate of the outflow population, while the smaller provinces have a tendency to accelerate the growth rate. The flow direction selection of the outflow population in central provinces has obvious regional aggregation effect. The direction distribution is most concentrated in Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi, and most dispersed in Shanxi and Henan. Based on the panel data from 2002 to 2012, the variable coefficient panel data model of the economic impact of the central provincial population outflow on the outflow area is established, and it is found that the central provincial population outflow has a weak negative impact on the overall economic growth of the central region. The inter-provincial population outflow in the central region is not conducive to narrowing the economic gap between the central and eastern regions. In addition, the inter-provincial population outflow in the central region has to a certain extent hindered the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the central region. As a whole, the outflow of population reduces the proportion of GDP output of the tertiary industry, and increases the proportion of GDP output of the first and the second industries. The relative backwardness of the economic level in the central region leads to the massive outflow of population in the central region, which further hinders the economic development of the central region. Therefore, it is necessary for the local government to pay more attention to the economic development of the central region and alleviate the phenomenon of the brain drain from the central region. Meanwhile, the outflow of the central population has different effects on the provinces, and the policy formulation should be adapted to the local conditions.
【作者单位】：吉林大学东北亚研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目:人口迁移与延边朝鲜族人口负增长关系研究(13BRK023);国家社会科学基金项目:“人口城镇化”理论与制度创新研究(14BRK035)
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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