云南人口安全预警系统研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 07:55

本文选题：云南 + 人口安全　；参考：《云南大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 自2003年春“非典”疫情突发之后,国内外突发事件、自然灾害时有发生,人们逐渐认识到,人口发展并非是简单的“生多生少”的数量问题。从人口可持续发展的角度出发,人口发展涉及到社会、政治、经济、资源、环境等多个方面,对人口环境的关注必须上升到安全层面,将其视为国家安全中最基本的安全问题之一。随着学界对人口安全研究的不断升入,人口安全的内涵外延也在不断扩大。人口发展变化本身具有一定的规律性,如果这些规律受到破坏,人口自身就会呈现出一种不稳定特征,导致不安全的因素随之增加;作为社会的主体性因素,人类对经济社会、资源环境子系统占有支配地位,同时作为人口的支持系统,经济社会发展和资源环境状况对人口的发展又会形成约束和限制,人口行为一旦突破这些约束和限制,就会导致人口发展的外部环境恶化,使人类本身面临着不安全的风险。本文以云南省的环境资源条件和经济社会发展状况为背景,以云南省人口系统为研究对象,以全面实现小康社会为目标,构建出了区域内的人口安全预警指标体系,运用主成分分析法建立了具有区域特色的人口安全预警模型,对云南省2000年至2008年的人口安全状态进行了评价,并对2020年的人口安全进行了预警评估。总体上看,人口安全状态呈现上升趋势,从2000年的低度安全水平上升到2020年的中度安全状态,但从内部特征来看,各因子间呈现出较大的差异。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of SARS epidemic in spring 2003, natural disasters have occurred from time to time at home and abroad. People have come to realize that population development is not a simple problem of "having more and having less". From the perspective of sustainable population development, population development involves many aspects, such as society, politics, economy, resources, environment and so on. Attention to the population and environment must be raised to the level of security. Regard it as one of the most basic security problems in national security. With the development of the research on population security, the connotation and extension of population security is expanding. Population development and change itself has certain regularity. If these laws are destroyed, the population itself will present an unstable characteristic, which will lead to an increase in the factors of insecurity. As the supporting system of population, economic and social development and resources and environment conditions will restrict and restrict the development of population. Once the population behavior breaks through these constraints and restrictions, It will lead to the deterioration of the external environment of population development and the risk of insecurity. Based on the environmental and resource conditions and the economic and social development of Yunnan Province, the population system of Yunnan Province is taken as the research object, and the goal of realizing a well-off society in an all-round way is taken as the goal, and the early warning index system of population security in the region is constructed. A population security early warning model with regional characteristics was established by principal component analysis (PCA). The population security status of Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2008 was evaluated and the population security in 2020 was evaluated. On the whole, the security status of population is on the rise, from the low security level in 2000 to the moderate security state in 2020, but from the internal characteristics, there are great differences among the factors.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2

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