基于人口自然增长的北京市老年人口空间分布预测研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 04:45

本文选题：老年人口 + 自然增长　；参考：《人口与发展》2016年02期

【摘要】：北京市正面临严峻的老龄化问题,但既有研究大多基于现状老年人口分布,具有一定局限性。需对未来老年人口空间分布进行预测。采用年龄移算法预测了2020年北京市乡镇(街道)尺度下的老年人口空间分布。基于2000-2010年数据的方法有效性检验说明了该方法的预测精度较高,且反映出2000-2010年期间北京市老年人口的市内迁移主要表现在由核心区(东城区和西城区)向4个近郊区(昌平区、大兴区、通州区和丰台区)的迁移。对2020年老年人口多情景预测表明,在人口自然增长状态下2020年北京市老年人口总量在427-448万之间,人口年龄结构老化是北京市老年人口增长的主要影响因素,人口死亡率的影响较小且对各区县的影响差异很小。在2010-2020年期间,近郊区域是北京市老年人口自然增长最快的区域,应作为在未来北京市养老政策制定尤其是养老资源空间配置的重点区域。
[Abstract]:Beijing is facing a serious problem of aging, but most of the research is based on the present status of the elderly population distribution and has some limitations. It is necessary to predict the spatial distribution of the elderly population in the future. The age migration algorithm is used to predict the oral space distribution of the elderly in the township (street) scale in the city of Beijing in 2020. The method based on the data of 2000-2010 years is based on the age shift algorithm. The effectiveness test showed that the prediction accuracy of the method was high, and that the migration of the elderly population in Beijing in 2000-2010 years was mainly in the migration from the core area (Dongcheng District and Xicheng District) to the 4 suburban areas (Changping District, Daxing District, Tongzhou District and Fengtai District). The forecast of the elderly population in 2020 showed that the population increased naturally. In the long state, the total population of the elderly population in Beijing in 2020 is 427-448 million. The aging of the population age structure is the main factor affecting the growth of the elderly population in Beijing. The influence of the population mortality is small and the difference between the districts and counties is small. In the period of 2010-2020 years, the suburb area is the fastest growing area of the elderly population in Beijing City, which should be the fastest growing area. As a key area of Beijing's pension policy formulation in the future, especially the allocation of pension resources.
【作者单位】：北京大学城市规划与设计学院;北京大学城市与环境学院;北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金委青年基金(41301164) 北师大自主科研项目(2015KJJCB30)
【分类号】：C924.2

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