金州新区生育“二胎”问题和政策微调调查报告

发布时间：2018-06-25 16:12

本文选题：计划生育 + 二胎　；参考：《大连理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济社会的高速发展,人口老龄化加速、人口性别比失衡、人口整体素质不高,以及人口增长给环境带来的问题,都是与人们生活息息相关的人口问题。是否该允许生育二胎以及政策如何微调,已经成为当前计划生育政策研究的一个焦点。二胎政策调整之说由来已久。但是中国当前庞大的人口基数无疑是一个现实的问题。二胎政策一旦放开,将有多少人响应政策号召,释放压抑己久的生育愿望而生育二胎? 本文从计划生育政策角度入手,在整理大量文献资料的基础上,利用“关于金州新区生育‘二胎’情况”的问卷调查获取实证数据,采用将理论与实证研究相结合的方法,在此方法论框架内来检验和评估金州新区生育“二胎”情况,并大胆提出对金州新区生育“二胎”进行政策微调的建议,进而为全国进行计划生育政策的微调提供调研数据和理论参考。本文在全区范围内选取三个具有代表性的街道,每个街道选取两个社区(村)作为样本进行调查研究。本次调查中一共发放问卷共有600份,经统计成功收回并有效的问卷共有598份,从而取得了有关金州新区来自于不同性别、不同年龄阶段、不同婚姻状况、不同受教育情况人群对于生育第二胎子女意愿的第一手数据。本文就金州新区生育意愿和金州新区生育状况进行调查研究,分别对金州新区未婚、已婚人群生育意愿,平均期望子女数,生育意愿与年龄和文化程度的关系以及金州新区生育观念、生育行为、生育知识几个维度进行调查研究并得出结论。金州新区老龄化严惩,人口呈现负增长趋势,考虑到生育政策对人口和生育率变化的滞后性,以及发达国家应对低生育率的经验和教训,笔者认为,最为可行的方案是“分放二孩”,即分区域分步骤逐渐有层次的允许生育二胎,这样即充分考虑了政策调整时问的紧迫性,又保证社会经济的发展与建设在稳定的人口环境下有序进行。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, the population aging accelerates, the population sex ratio is out of balance, the overall quality of the population is not high, and the population growth brings problems to the environment, which are closely related to people's life. Whether to allow a second child and how to fine-tune the policy has become a focus of current family planning policy research. The theory of two-child policy adjustment has a long history. But China's current huge population base is undoubtedly a real problem. Once the second child policy is liberalized, how many people will respond to the policy call and release their long-suppressed desire to have a second child? From the perspective of family planning policy, based on a large amount of literature, this paper uses the questionnaire survey on the 'second child' situation in Jinzhou New District to obtain the empirical data, and adopts the method of combining the theory with the empirical research. Within the framework of this methodology, it is necessary to examine and evaluate the situation of "second child" in Jinzhou New District, and to make bold suggestions for fine-tuning the policy of giving birth to "second child" in Jinzhou New District. And then for the national fine-tuning of family planning policy to provide research data and theoretical reference. In this paper, three representative streets are selected in the whole district, and two communities (villages) are selected for investigation. A total of 600 questionnaires were sent out in this survey, and a total of 598 questionnaires were successfully collected and valid through statistics. As a result, the Jinzhou New District came from different gender, different age stages, and different marital status. First-hand data on the willingness of people with different educational backgrounds to have a second child. In this paper, the fertility intention of Jinzhou New District and the fertility status of Jinzhou New District are investigated, and the average number of expected children among unmarried and married population in Jinzhou New District is analyzed respectively. The relationship between fertility intention and age and education level, as well as the dimensions of fertility concept, reproductive behavior and fertility knowledge in Jinzhou New District were investigated and concluded. The aging of Jinzhou New area is severely punished, and the population shows a negative growth trend. Considering the lag of fertility policy on population and fertility changes, and the experiences and lessons of developed countries in dealing with low fertility rate, the author thinks, The most feasible option is to "divide the two children", that is, to allow for the birth of a second child step by step, in a manner that takes full account of the urgency of policy adjustments, Social and economic development and construction in a stable population environment carried out in an orderly manner.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C924.21

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