苏州市人口变动的数理仿真研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 21:22

本文选题：人口预测 + 年龄结构　；参考：《复旦大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：人是社会和社会活动最基本的要素,人口数量、质量和年龄分布直接影响—个地区的经济发展、资源分配、社会保障、社会稳定。中国是世界第一人口大国,人口问题始终是关系到我国能否长期可持续发展的重大问题。当前我国的人口问题已经不是简单的人口总量的问题,人口结构的问题同样突出。随着人口形势的日益复杂,传统的粗线条的人口预测已经不能满足人口研究及政策制定的需要,人口规划对人口预测精准度的要求越来越高。本文利用数理仿真模型对苏州市未来的人口结构变化进行预测,该方法能较好地考虑个体间的相互作用。通过模拟,我们得到在生育政策是否放开二孩生育及是否有迁入人口的条件下,苏州市未来的人口变动情况,并且通过分析预测结果,我们希望可以得到一些对苏州市未来的人口政策有益的结论。
[Abstract]:People are the most basic elements of social and social activities. The population quantity, quality and age distribution directly affect the economic development, resource allocation, social security and social stability in each region. China is the largest population country in the world, and the population problem is always a major issue related to the long-term sustainable development of our country. At present, the population problem in our country is no longer a simple problem of total population, and the problem of population structure is also prominent. With the increasing complexity of population situation, the traditional rough population forecast can not meet the needs of population research and policy making. In this paper, the mathematical simulation model is used to predict the population structure change in Suzhou in the future. This method can better consider the interaction between individuals. Through simulation, we get the future population changes in Suzhou under the condition of whether the fertility policy will open the birth of two children and whether there is an immigrant population, and through the analysis of the forecast results, We hope to get some useful conclusions on Suzhou's future population policy.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2

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