诱致性变迁视角的我国人口转型特征与经济失衡矫正

发布时间：2018-06-30 00:07

本文选题：人口转型 + 老龄化社会　；参考：《改革》2013年01期

【摘要】：从人口年龄结构视角解读全球经济失衡的成因,认为"人口红利"型国家往往引发贸易盈余,"人口负债"型国家多数对应着贸易赤字;人口结构所引起的经济失衡是不同国家、不同代际之间相互调配资源的产物,它使得资源在更广阔的时空中得以优化配置,是经济效率的一种体现;由于人口年龄结构长期中收敛于稳态,因而一国不可能永久性地陷入失衡。此外,针对我国人口老年化以及刘易斯拐点的逼近,应从人口出生率、人口退休年龄、国际移民政策和全要素生产率方面平滑人口年龄结构,推动劳动密集型产业由"竞次"向"竞优"转型。
[Abstract]:Interpreting the causes of global economic imbalances from the perspective of the age structure of the population, it is believed that the "demographic dividend" countries tend to cause trade surpluses, while most of the "population debt" countries correspond to trade deficits; the economic imbalances caused by the demographic structure are different countries. The product of the intergenerational allocation of resources, which enables the optimal allocation of resources in a wider space and time, is a manifestation of economic efficiency; as the age structure of the population converges over a long period of time to a steady state, It is therefore impossible for a country to remain permanently out of balance. In addition, in view of the ageing of the population in China and the approaching turning point of Lewis, the age structure of the population should be smoothed from the aspects of birth rate, retirement age, international migration policy and total factor productivity. Promote labor-intensive industries from "competition" to "competitive" transition.
【作者单位】：南京审计学院经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“人口年龄结构、高储蓄率与外贸失衡的传导机制与相关政策研究”(批准号:11CJY030) 教育部人文社会科学基金项目“中国的劳动收入占比:测算方法构建、多重因素分解与刘易斯拐点逼近后的政策治理思路”(批准号:12YJC790017)
【分类号】：C924.2;F124

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