中日韩GDP、人口、产业结构对能源消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 11:19

本文选题：中日韩 + 能源消费　；参考：《中国人口.资源与环境》2013年05期

【摘要】：中日韩三国能源消费对其经济发展,对世界经济形势和能源市场都起着重要作用。在分析中日韩三国能源生产和消费的基础上,构建了1990-2010年三国能源消费面板数据库,并分别在静态和动态面板数据模型框架下,考察了影响三国能源消费的因素。研究结果显示,GDP和人口对三国能源消费总量均为显著正相关,三国能源消费呈现总量递增、构成改变、效率提高的发展趋势;人口对能源消费的影响超过GDP的影响;经济增长和城市化是影响中国能源消费的主要因素,人口是决定日韩两国能源消费的主要因素;第三产业对三国能源消费的影响均呈下降趋势,中国第二产业对能源消费的影响较高;上一期能源消费量的大小对本期的消费量具有显著正的影响。基于能源的稀缺性和世界能源竞争的激烈形势,中国应借鉴日韩经验,转变经济增长方式,建立能源与经济、环境协调发展的政策保障体系和管理程序。通过产业结构调整发展低能耗的高新技术产业,提高能源要素质量和能源利用效率。
[Abstract]:Energy consumption of China, Japan and Korea plays an important role in its economic development, world economic situation and energy market. Based on the analysis of energy production and consumption in China, Japan and Korea, the energy consumption panel database of China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2010 was constructed, and the factors affecting energy consumption in the three countries were investigated under the framework of static and dynamic panel data models. The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between GDP and population on the total energy consumption of the three countries, the total energy consumption of the three countries is increasing gradually, which forms a trend of change and efficiency improvement, and the impact of population on energy consumption exceeds the impact of GDP. Economic growth and urbanization are the main factors that affect China's energy consumption. Population is the main factor that determines the energy consumption of Japan and South Korea. The influence of the tertiary industry on the energy consumption of the three countries shows a downward trend. China's secondary industry has a higher impact on energy consumption, and the size of energy consumption in the previous period has a significant positive impact on the consumption in the current period. Based on the scarcity of energy and the fierce situation of energy competition in the world, China should learn from the experience of Japan and South Korea, change the mode of economic growth, and establish a policy guarantee system and management procedures for the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment. In order to improve the quality of energy elements and the efficiency of energy utilization, the industrial structure should be adjusted to develop the high and new technology industries with low energy consumption.
【作者单位】：山东大学研究生院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科规划课题“人力资本利用效率与区域经济均衡发展研究”(编号:11YJAZH120) 国务院侨办课题“中日韩经济一体化与华侨华人经济互动研究”(编号:GQBY2011018) 山东省社科规划重点项目“山东省产业结构与劳动力结构优化的互动关系研究”(编号:10BJGJ10)
【分类号】：F113.3;C924;F416.2;F224

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