中国“后人口转变”时代老龄化对居民储蓄率的影响

发布时间：2018-06-30 02:15

本文选题：人口经济学 + 储蓄率　；参考：《南方金融》2017年08期

【摘要】：我国已经进入以人口老龄化为主要特征的"后人口转变"时代。本文基于中国2000-2014年的省级面板数据,探讨人口老龄化对居民储蓄率的影响。研究结果表明:在"后人口转变"时代,我国人口老龄化对居民储蓄率水平有显著影响,两者之间呈现U型结构的非线性相关关系。当人口抚养比小于18.8%的临界值时,人口老龄化有助于降低居民储蓄率;而当人口抚养比高于18.8%的临界值时,人口老龄化将推高居民储蓄率。当前,我国居民抚养比约为13.7%,低于18.8%的临界值。这说明我国人口老龄化并不是造成居民储蓄率水平居高不下的主要原因,但随着人口老龄化进程的持续,未来可能会促使居民储蓄率水平进一步提升。为此,要着力稳定居民收入预期,提供兼顾收益性和安全性的投资产品,完善社会保障体系,适当降低居民储蓄率,提高居民消费倾向,促进经济持续稳定发展。
[Abstract]:China has entered a post-population transition era characterized by aging population. Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2014 in China, this paper discusses the impact of aging population on the savings rate of residents. The results show that in the "post-population transition" era, the aging of the population in China has a significant impact on the level of household savings rate, and there is a nonlinear correlation between the two types of structure. When the population dependency ratio is less than the critical value of 18.8%, the aging of the population will help to reduce the resident savings rate, while when the dependency ratio is above the critical value of 18.8%, the population aging will push up the resident savings rate. At present, the dependency ratio of residents in China is about 13.7%, which is below the critical value of 18.8%. This shows that the aging of the population is not the main reason for the high level of household savings rate, but as the aging process of the population continues, the future will probably promote the level of household savings rate to further increase. Therefore, we should make great efforts to stabilize residents' income expectations, provide investment products that take account of income and security, improve the social security system, appropriately reduce the household savings rate, increase the propensity of residents to consume, and promote the sustained and stable development of the economy.
【作者单位】：石河子大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目《“稳定-发展”双重目标下新疆人口空间格局优化的路径与政策研究》(项目编号:15AGL023)资助
【分类号】：C924.24;F832.22

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