甘肃省人口老龄化对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 02:52

本文选题：甘肃省 + 人口老龄化　；参考：《兰州大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口老龄化是由于生育率和死亡率的持续下降、人类平均寿命的不断延长,而使老年人口在总人口中的比重逐渐增加的过程。21世纪是人口老龄化的世纪,这种人口结构的变化正广泛影响着社会生活的各个方面,人口老龄化逐渐成为世界各国关注的重大人口问题。统计数据显示,甘肃省2005年进入老龄化社会(65岁以上的人口所占的比例为7.22%,老少比为30.86%),而且老龄化程度在不断加深。老龄化问题既是一个社会问题,也是一个严重的经济问题,如果处理不当,将会给社会经济的发展带来极大的负面效应。通过研究甘肃省人口老龄化问题,分析人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,可以使我们对老龄化有更深入的认识,在甘肃省人口老龄化高峰到来之前,做好相应的准备,将人口老龄化对经济增长的负面影响降至最低,并且利用人口老龄化带来的机会寻找新的经济增长点。论文共分为五个部分。第一部分,引言。简要介绍了选题背景及意义,相关的文献综述,研究思路和方法,并对人口老龄化的概念和衡量指标进行了介绍。第二部分,甘肃省人口老龄化的现状和特点。从历年老年人口变化趋势、人口年龄金字塔和老龄化的若干特点进行分析。第三部分,实证分析甘肃省人口老龄化对经济增长的影响。通过单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲影响函数来进行具体分析。第四部分,实证分析老龄化对经济增长各要素供给的影响。通过Leff模型和Cpps软件分析预测甘肃省人口老龄化对储蓄、劳动力供给的影响。第五部分,甘肃省人口老龄化的对策。提出多种措施来应对甘肃省的人口老龄化问题。
[Abstract]:Population ageing is the process of increasing the proportion of the elderly population in the total population as a result of the continuous decline in fertility and mortality and the continuous extension of human life expectancy. The twenty-first century is the century of population ageing. The change of population structure is affecting all aspects of social life. Population aging has gradually become a major population problem concerned by countries all over the world. Statistics show that Gansu Province entered an aging society in 2005 (the proportion of population over 65 years old is 7.22%, the ratio of old and young is 30.86%), and the aging degree is deepening. The aging problem is not only a social problem, but also a serious economic problem. If not handled properly, it will bring great negative effects to the development of social economy. By studying the problem of population aging in Gansu Province and analyzing the impact of population aging on economic growth, we can have a deeper understanding of the aging of the population, and make corresponding preparations before the arrival of the peak of population aging in Gansu Province. To minimize the negative impact of population aging on economic growth, and to take advantage of the opportunities brought by population aging to find new economic growth. The thesis is divided into five parts. The first part, introduction. This paper briefly introduces the background and significance of the selected topic, the related literature review, the research ideas and methods, and introduces the concept and measurement index of population aging. The second part, the present situation and characteristic of population aging in Gansu province. This paper analyzes the trend of aging population, the pyramid of population age and some characteristics of aging. The third part, the empirical analysis of the impact of population aging on economic growth in Gansu Province. Through unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse impact function to carry out specific analysis. The fourth part, the empirical analysis of the impact of aging on the supply of various elements of economic growth. The effects of aging population on the supply of savings and labor force in Gansu Province are predicted by Leff model and CPPS software. The fifth part, the countermeasures of population aging in Gansu province. Put forward a variety of measures to deal with the aging of the population in Gansu Province.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.24;F127

【引证文献】