南京市人口与资源环境协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 18:56

本文选题：人口预测 + 生态足迹　；参考：《南京林业大学》2010年硕士论文

【摘要】： 本文以南京市人口承载力问题为研究对象,在探讨南京市人口发展的现状的基础上,采用人口分要素的方法对南京市未来10年人口总量进行预测,同时利用生态足迹模型对南京市人口与资源环境协调发展问题进行分析和评价,并结合当地的资源、环境及经济发展现状,运用耕地资源人口承载力、水资源人口承载力和经济适度人口的方法,建立了相关的分析模型,对南京市未来10年人口承载力进行了预测和分析评价,提出人口与资源环境协调发展的对策和建议。本文的主要结论如下：第一、预测未来人口发展状况的方法较多,本文采用人口分要素预测方法,预测出南京市2010年人口达822万人,2020年达1047万人。第二、对南京市人口与资源环境协调发展问题进行分析和评价,结果显示：南京市的人均生态承载力呈下降趋势,而人均生态足迹上升趋势更为明显,人均生态赤字显著增长,南京市处于不可持续发展状态；人口总量的过快增长和主要由能源消费引起生态赤字是导致南京市人口与资源环境不协调发展的直接原因,且未来这种趋势还将继续；第三、通过资源综合承载力和经济适度人口的计算和研究分析,最后综合预测出2010年南京市适度人为680万人,2020年为627万人；2010年、2020年南京市人口、经济、资源环境协调发展的适度人口规模小于预测人口规模,未来人口总量对资源环境承载力的压力依然很大。
[Abstract]:This paper takes the population carrying capacity of Nanjing as the research object, on the basis of discussing the present situation of the population development in Nanjing, using the method of population sub-factor to forecast the total population of Nanjing in the next 10 years. At the same time, the ecological footprint model is used to analyze and evaluate the coordinated development of population and resources and environment in Nanjing, and combined with the current situation of local resources, environment and economic development, the population carrying capacity of cultivated land resources is used. Based on the methods of population carrying capacity of water resources and moderate population of economy, the relevant analysis model is established, and the population carrying capacity of Nanjing in the next 10 years is forecasted and evaluated, and the countermeasures and suggestions for the coordinated development of population and resources and environment are put forward. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, there are many methods to predict the future population development. The population of Nanjing is estimated to be 8.22 million in 2010 and 10.47 million in 2020. Secondly, the paper analyzes and evaluates the coordinated development of population and resources and environment in Nanjing. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Nanjing per capita is decreasing, while the ecological footprint per capita is increasing more obviously, and the per capita ecological deficit is increasing significantly. The rapid growth of population and the ecological deficit caused mainly by energy consumption are the direct reasons for the uncoordinated development of population and resource environment in Nanjing, and this trend will continue in the future. Thirdly, through the calculation, research and analysis of the comprehensive carrying capacity of resources and the moderate population of the economy, it is finally forecasted that the moderate population of Nanjing was 6.8 million in 2010 and 6.27 million in 2020, the population of Nanjing in 2010, 2020, and the economy. The moderate population scale of the coordinated development of resources and environment is smaller than the predicted population scale, and the pressure on the carrying capacity of resources and environment is still great in the future.
【学位授予单位】：南京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.24

【参考文献】