健康人力资本投资对人口老龄化的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-11 21:25

本文选题：健康人力资本投资 + 人口老龄化　；参考：《陕西师范大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国医疗卫生等健康人力资本投资的增长速度很快,2009年的《中国卫生发展绿皮书——中国卫生费用核算研究报告》显示,1978年-2007年,中国卫生总费用从110.21亿元增长到了11289.48亿元,人均卫生总费用由11.45元增长到854.43元,按照当年价格计算,2007年我国人均卫生总费用是1978年的74.6倍。在健康人力资本投资不断增加的同时,我国也于1999年迈入了老龄化社会。2000年11月底第五次人口普查结果显示,我国65岁以上老年人口已达8811万人,占总人口6.96%,60岁以上人口达1.3亿人,占总人口10.2%,以上比例按国际标准衡量,我国均已进入了老龄化社会。此外,我国人口老龄化的速度也非常快,根据民政部发布的2009年民政事业发展统计报告,截至2009年底,全国65岁及以上老年人口11309万人,占全国总人口的8.5%。60岁及以上老年人口16714万人,占全国总人口的12.5%,从2000年到2009年,我国65岁以上老年人口增加了将近3000万人,我国进入了人口老龄化加速发展阶段。鉴于我国医疗卫生等健康人力资本投资的快速增长以及人口老龄化速度的加快,文章基于人口均衡发展的视角,研究我国健康人力资本投资对人口老龄化的影响。首先,从人口均衡发展的视角,分析我国健康人力资本投资对老年人口数量、健康状况以及年龄、性别、城乡、区域结构的影响；其次,实证检验我国健康人力资本投资对人口老龄化的影响,具体包括我国人均卫生费用、卫生机构床位数和卫生人员数与我国65岁以上老年人口比重的相关分析和我国人均卫生费用与65岁以上老年人口比重的格兰杰因果检验；人均卫生费用与我国65岁以上老年人口死亡率的格兰杰因果检验；人均卫生费用与我国65岁以上老年人口性别比的格兰杰因果检验；人均卫生费用与城市、农村65岁以上老年人口死亡率的相关分析；我国东部、中部、西部区域老年人口比重和人口健康系数的相关分析。最后,对实证得出的结果进行分析,并根据文章理论分析与实证检验得出的结果提出政策建议。文章的研究结果为：我国人均卫生费用、医疗机构床位数、卫生人员数等健康人力资本投资与65岁以上老年人口比重呈正相关关系,我国健康人力资本投资的增加促进了老年人口数量的增加,引起了老年人口规模老龄化；人均卫生费用等健康人力资本投资与80岁以上老年人口比重呈正相关关系,健康人力资本投资提高了我国老年人口的预期寿命,改变了我国老年人口的年龄结构,引起了我国老年人口的高龄老龄化；人均卫生费用等健康人力资本投资与65岁以上老年人口性别比呈负相关关系,65岁以上男女老年人口的性别比不断下降,高龄老年人口中女性老年人口的比重不断上升,健康人力资本投资改变了老年人口的性别结构,引起了我国老年人口的女性高龄化；人均卫生费用等健康人力资本投资与城乡65岁以上老年人口比重呈正相关关系,但人均卫生费用与农村65岁以上老年人口相关系数的绝对值高于人均卫生费用与城市65岁以上老年人口的相关系数的绝对值,农村65岁以上老年人口的死亡率远远高于城市65岁以上老年人口的死亡率,我国健康人力资本投资的城乡不平衡引起了我国农村老年人口的健康贫困：我国西部地区65岁以上老年人口比重不断上升,东部地区65岁以上老年人口比重不断下降,而东部地区的健康人力资本投资水平远远高于西部地区,我国人口区域健康系数差异很大,我国区域老年人口存在健康不平衡现象。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's health and health human capital investment has been growing rapidly. In 2009, the Chinese health development green book - China health cost accounting study report showed that in -2007 in 1978, China's total health cost increased from 11 billion 21 million yuan to 1 trillion and 128 billion 948 million yuan, and the total health cost per capita increased from 11.45 yuan to 854.4. 3 yuan, according to the price of the year, the total health cost per capita of China in 2007 is 74.6 times that of 1978. While the investment of healthy human capital is increasing, our country also entered the aging society in 1999 and the fifth census results of the fifth times in November. The population of our country over 65 years old has reached 88 million 110 thousand, accounting for 6.96% of the total population and 60 years old. The population is 130 million, accounting for 10.2% of the total population, and the above proportion is measured by international standards. Our country has entered an aging society. In addition, the rate of population aging is very fast. According to the statistics report on Civil Affairs Development issued by the Ministry of civil affairs in 2009, as of the end of 2009, 113 million 90 thousand people of the whole country were 65 and above, accounting for the total number of people in the country. The population of 8.5%.60 years old and above is 167 million 140 thousand, accounting for 12.5% of the total population of the country. From 2000 to 2009, the population of our country aged 65 and over has increased by nearly 30 million people, and China has entered the accelerated development stage of population aging.
In view of the rapid growth of health human capital investment and the speed of population aging in China, based on the perspective of population balanced development, this paper studies the effect of health human capital investment on population aging in China. First, from the perspective of population balanced development, the number of healthy human capital investment to the elderly population is analyzed. Quantity, health status and the influence of age, sex, urban and rural, regional structure; secondly, the empirical test of the impact of health human capital investment on population aging in China, including the per capita health cost in China, the correlation analysis of health agency bed and number of health personnel and the proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old in our country, and the per capita health fee in China. The Grainger causality test with the proportion of the aged over 65 years old; the per capita health cost and the Grainger causality test for the mortality of the elderly over 65 years old in China; the Grainger causality test of the per capita health cost and the sex ratio of the elderly over 65 years old in our country; the per capita health cost and the city, the death of the elderly over the age of 65 years old in the rural areas The correlation analysis of the rate and the correlation analysis of the proportion of the elderly population and the population health factor in the eastern, central and western regions of China. Finally, the results are analyzed, and the policy suggestions are put forward according to the results obtained from the theoretical analysis and the empirical test.
The result of the study is that there is a positive correlation between health human capital investment per capita, medical institutions bed number and number of health personnel and the proportion of elderly people over 65 years old. The increase of health human capital investment in China has promoted the increase of the number of elderly population, led to the aging of the elderly population, and the per capita health fee. There is a positive correlation between the investment of healthy human capital and the proportion of the elderly over 80 years of age. The health human capital investment has improved the life expectancy of the elderly in our country, changed the age structure of the elderly population in our country, caused the aging of the elderly population in our country, and the investment of healthy human capital, such as the per capita health cost and so on, and over 65 years of age. There is a negative correlation between the sex ratio of the elderly population, the gender ratio of the elderly people over 65 years and older is declining, the proportion of the elderly population in the elderly is increasing. The investment of healthy human capital has changed the gender structure of the elderly population, which has caused the aging of the elderly population in our country, and the health manpower per capita and so on. There is a positive correlation between the capital investment and the proportion of urban and rural elderly over 65 years old, but the absolute value of the per capita health cost and the relative coefficient of the elderly over 65 years old in rural areas is higher than that of the per capita health cost and the relative coefficient of the aged population over 65 years old in the city. The mortality rate of the old population over the age of 65 years in the countryside is far higher than the city's 65 year old population. The mortality of the elderly population and the imbalance of urban and rural investment in China's healthy human capital have caused the health poverty of the elderly in the rural areas of China: the proportion of the elderly population over 65 years of age in the western region of our country is rising constantly, the proportion of the aged over 65 years in the East is declining, and the investment level of the health human capital is far higher in the East region. In the western region, there is a great difference in health coefficient of population and region in China.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2

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