西安市人口结构与住房需求研究

发布时间：2018-07-14 12:20

【摘要】： 经济社会的发展总是和国民需求有很大关系,房地产业的发展与国民需求也息息相关,影响房地产市场的因素是多样的,如:经济增长速度、经济和社会政策的制定、城市化进程、人均居住面积、居民的消费支出水平、人口因素、房地产价格、开发成本、土地资源的供给等。在众多因素中,经济和社会等因素的变化规律相对来说不易掌握,而人口变动的规律性则相对稳定。同时,人口因素也是影响住房需求的内在因素,了解人口的变动趋势,才能了解未来住房内在需求的变动趋势。因此,人口因素是影响住房需求的重要方面,关注人口因素对引导房地产业良性发展具有重要意义。本文以西安市作为研究对象,致力于从人口因素的角度研究西安市住房需求的变化规律。首先,利用西安第五次人口普查统计数据、西安市统计年鉴数据和问卷调查数据,对人口与住房需求之间进行定性分析,发现二者之间存在高度相关的关系,说明从人口的角度研究住房需求具有一定科学性。其次,运用人口统计分析技术建立模型,预测未来十年的人口结构变化,包括人口规模、家庭户数、家庭规模和家庭类型。然后,通过人口结构的变化对住房需求进行预测,分析未来住房需求变化趋势。得到以下结论:西安市人口规模将不断膨胀,家庭户数增多,未来十年住房刚性需求旺盛;家庭呈小型化和简单化趋势,中小户型住房将成为住房需求的主流;潜在住房需求将增加。最后,针对结论,为西安市房地产业的规划和发展提出对策和建议:合理控制住房的开发总量;增加中小户型住房的开发比例;政府积极发挥住房资源调节职能。
[Abstract]:The development of economy and society is always related to the national demand, and the development of real estate industry is closely related to the national demand. The factors influencing the real estate market are various, such as the speed of economic growth, the formulation of economic and social policies, Urbanization, per capita living area, consumption expenditure level, population factor, real estate price, development cost, supply of land resources, etc. Among many factors, the law of change of economic and social factors is relatively difficult to grasp, while the regularity of population change is relatively stable. At the same time, the population factor is also the internal factor that affects the housing demand, only by understanding the changing trend of the population, can we understand the change trend of the future housing intrinsic demand. Therefore, population factor is an important aspect affecting housing demand. It is of great significance to pay attention to population factor to guide the healthy development of real estate industry. Taking Xi'an as the object of study, this paper is devoted to studying the changing law of housing demand in Xi'an from the point of view of population factors. First of all, using Xi'an fifth census statistical data, Xi'an statistical yearbook data and questionnaire survey data, the qualitative analysis of the population and housing demand, found that there is a high correlation between the two. It shows that it is scientific to study housing demand from the point of view of population. Secondly, using demographic analysis technology to establish a model to predict the population structure changes in the next ten years, including population size, household size, family size and family type. Then, the change of population structure is used to predict the housing demand, and the change trend of housing demand in the future is analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: the population of Xi'an will expand continuously, the number of households will increase, the rigid demand for housing will be exuberant in the next ten years, the family will be miniaturized and simplified, and small and medium-sized housing will become the mainstream of housing demand; Potential housing demand will increase. Finally, in view of the conclusion, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for the planning and development of real estate industry in Xi'an: reasonable control of the total amount of housing development, increasing the proportion of the development of small and medium-sized housing units, and the government actively exerting the function of housing resources regulation.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.25

【引证文献】