吉林省延边朝鲜族地区出生人口性别比现状调查及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-07-17 06:36

【摘要】： 出生性别比(sex ratio at birth, SRB)指的是每100名女婴出生所对应的男婴数,它是一个人口周期开始时的结构标识,经观察研究发现这一指标基本稳定在103-107之间符合大数定律,在无人为干扰因素的情况下,出生性别比虽有波动但终究会趋于平衡。偏高或者偏低的出生性别比将造成这一人口周期出生之后的性别失衡,同时带来一些社会问题,比如男性偏高带来的例如婚姻挤压、性犯罪率升高等,女性偏高(如俄罗斯二次大战后的性别比)带来的社会生产力低下等,因此,解决本国出生性别比的异常是任何一个国家解决人口问题首先要面对的挑战。党中央、国务院提出“到2020年,基本解决出生性别比偏高的问题”(摘自《中共中央国务院关于加强人口与计划生育工作稳定低生育水平的决定》),因此,研究出生性别比的异常并提出解决问题的政策建议是具有现实意义的。我国的出生性别比由1949年新中国成立开始的异常偏高逐渐下降,并于1983年开始出现异常升高,至今并未出现多大改善。有研究预测在2020年,我国将出现3000万女性的缺失,因此,研究我国出生性别比的现状以及影响因素对于解决目前我国这一指标的异常是十分重要的。根据相关研究文献,目前国内外关于出生性别比现状和影响因素研究的切入点主要是通过统计年鉴数据、性别偏好的产生和影响、生育政策和社会经济因素的影响等。相关研究表明,产生性别偏好的原因是多方面的而且构成复杂。真正对于调整出生性别比异常的着眼点在于如何正确认识人们固有的性别偏好。本研究针对诸多影响因素中,处于主导地位的性别偏好进行多因素分析,以期找出影响当地出生性别比的性别偏好的直、间接相关因素。目前国内外对于我国出生性别比的研究主要集中在宏观层面即汉族聚居地区,而对于我国少数民族地区的研究相对较少,目前还仅限于针对统计年鉴中数据的描述性分析。由于少数民族聚居区内的各个民族在文化、生活方式等存在着差异,这种些差异导致我国少数民族聚居区的出生性别比的情况异常复杂。因此,本研究在借鉴已有研究结论的基础上,立足于定点研究这一少数民族聚居区的出生性别比现状和影响因素,以期为研究如何更好地综合治理我国少数民族地区出生性别比提供一些理论和实践的积累。本研究以吉林省延边朝鲜族自治州为例,在抽样的基础上进行数据整理和统计推断,在根据调研数据描述当地现状的基础上,分析影响当地出生性别比的影响因素。吉林省朝鲜族人口为117万,占我国朝鲜族居民总数的60%以上(“五普”全国朝鲜族人口总数为192万),其中延边朝鲜族自治州的人数为92万(“五普”),占吉林省朝鲜族总人口的78.6%,因此,选取当地这一有代表性的少数民族聚居区进行深入研究。本次研究采用现场流行病学的方法结合定性、定量的手段对延边朝鲜自治州的出生性别比现状进行抽样调查,并且通过多元分析找出当地性别偏好的影响因素。实地调研采取分层抽样的方法,在吉林省延边朝鲜族自治州下辖的8个市县中,按照当地经济发展水平分层抽取5个市县,并在当地计生部门的协调、配合下从这5个地区进行入户调查,最终有效样本为1908份。结果表明,延边朝鲜族自治州出生性别比自2005年到2008年的出生性别比变动大约在102-114之间波动。通过对数据的统计推断,在诸多影响性别偏好的影响因素中,婴儿母亲所属民族、母亲受教育水平、父亲所属民族、父亲受教育水平、父亲职业、居住地区的城乡差异、怀孕次数、分娩次数与出生婴儿性别比是主要的影响因素,这些因素在进一步影响着当地的出生性别比。
[Abstract]:The birth sex ratio at birth ( SRB ) refers to the number of male and infant corresponding to the birth of every 100 female babies . It is a structural identification at the beginning of a population cycle . It is found that this indicator is basically stable between 103 and 107 .

According to the relevant research literature , the study on the present situation and influencing factors of sex ratio at home and abroad is mainly based on the statistics of statistics , the production and influence of sex preference , the policy of fertility and socio - economic factors , etc . The study shows that the reasons for gender preference are multi - faceted and complex .

At present , the study of sex ratio at home and abroad is mainly focused on the macro - level , namely , the Han population area , which is limited to the descriptive analysis of the data in the minority areas of our country . As a result , the present study is based on the existing research conclusion , and based on the present research conclusion , this study is based on the research of the present situation and the influencing factors of the birth sex ratio of the minority settlement area in our country , with a view to providing some theories and practice accumulation for the study of how to better integrate the birth sex ratio of the minority areas in our country .

Based on the data description of the present situation , the paper analyses the factors that affect the local birth sex ratio . The population of Korean nationality in Jilin Province is 117.6 % , which accounts for 78.6 % of the total population of the Korean ethnic group in Jilin Province . Therefore , it is necessary to select the representative minority settlement area of Jilin Province for further study .

In this study , the present situation of birth sex ratio in Yanbian Democratic People ' s Republic of Korea was investigated by means of qualitative and quantitative methods , and the influence factors of local gender preference were found by means of multivariate analysis .

The results show that the sex ratio of the birth sex ratio between 2005 and 2008 is about 102 - 114 . By the statistical inference of the data , in many factors that affect the sex preference , the mother - to - nationality of the infant , the mother ' s education level , the country difference between the father and the nationality , the father ' s occupation , the urban and rural difference of the living area , the number of pregnancy , the number of times of delivery and the sex ratio of the birth infant are the main influencing factors , which further influence the local birth sex ratio .
【学位授予单位】：北京中医药大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2

【参考文献】