京津冀县域人口城镇化时空格局及驱动力研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 17:43

【摘要】：文章基于2000年和2010年中国人口普查的分县数据,采用ESDA方法分析京津冀地区县域城镇化率的空间格局分布及变动情况,提出城镇化率变动分城乡贡献度指标并就京津冀地区进行研究,采取空间误差模型与GWR的方法分别考察该地区城镇化全局和局部的驱动力状况。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区的县域城镇化率表现出显著的空间集聚并且有逐渐加强的趋势;(2)城镇化率提高过程呈现收敛模式,高城镇化率地区对于周边城镇化率过低的地区具有带动作用;(3)对于城镇化率提高的地区,其增量中乡村贡献度的高值分布与城镇化程度低的一些地区重合;(4)经济水平、产业结构、医教水平和地形因素对京津冀地区城镇化影响显著。
[Abstract]:Based on the data from the 2000 and 2010 population censuses in China, the paper analyzes the spatial pattern distribution and changes of the urbanization rate of the counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by using the ESDA method. The urbanization rate is divided into urban and rural contribution index and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is studied. The spatial error model and the GWR method are adopted to investigate the overall and local driving forces of urbanization in this area. The results show that: (1) the urbanization rate of the county in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows a significant spatial agglomeration and has a trend of gradual strengthening; (2) the process of increasing the urbanization rate shows a convergent pattern. The high urbanization rate area has the driving effect to the surrounding low urbanization rate area; (3) to the area which the urbanization rate increases, the high value distribution of the rural contribution degree in its increment coincides with some areas with the low urbanization degree; (4) the economic level, Industrial structure, medical education level and terrain factors have a significant impact on urbanization in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;中国银行总行;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目:主体功能区规划背景下人口有序流动及合理分布研究(项目批准号:71373275)和贫困地区人口动态变化对扶贫开发的影响与应对研究(项目批准号:71541032)的阶段性成果教育部规划基金项目:京津冀城市圈人口有序转移与合理分布政策研究(项目批准号:71441005) 中央在京高校重大成果转化项目:“京津冀协同一体化发展研究”的资助
【分类号】：C922

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