中国人口结构变化对储蓄的影响

发布时间：2018-07-23 20:15

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国的经济取得了突飞猛进的发展。在2008、2009年连续两年,中国的GDP在全球排名第三位,而到了2010年中国的GDP总额位居全球第二位,这标志着中国已经超过了日本,成为了世界第二大经济体。但是与此同时,我国也出现了以下两个比较显著的问题:一是近10年在全球总储蓄率一直呈现下降趋势的现状下,我国的居民的储蓄率却持续呈现上升的趋势。1990年我国国民储蓄规模占GDP的37.5%,而到了2009年己经达到52%(数据来源于中国各年的统计年鉴);二是自从我国计划生育的政策实施之后,我国的人口结构发生了很大的变化,其中最突出的就是年龄结构的变化,65岁及以上的老年人口在逐年的增加,使我国将面临人口老龄化的问题。本文以弗里德曼(Friedman, 1957)的持久收入假说理论(Permanent income hypothesis,简称PIH)为基础,并引入人口年龄结构变量,选取1990-2009年28个省际面板数据,通过构建计量经济模型,并采用面板估计方法和实证分析法进行研究中国人口结构变化对储蓄的影响。从而得出结论:人口结构变化对我国的居民储蓄有着重要的影响,两者之间存在着负相关关系,其中少儿抚养比跟储蓄率具有显著的负相关关系,老年抚养比跟储蓄率有正相关关系,并且后者的显著性要强于前者;收入增长率对储蓄率的有显著的正相关关系,人口自然增长率跟储蓄率有显著的负相关关系;社会基本养老保险金增长率跟储蓄率有显著负相关关系。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has made rapid progress. In 20082009 years, China's GDP ranked third in the world, and in 2010 China's total GDP was the second largest in the world, which marks that China has exceeded Japan and became the second largest economy in the world. But at the same time, China has also appeared. The following two notable problems: first, in the past 10 years, the total savings rate of the world has been declining, but the savings rate of our residents has continued to rise. In.1990, China's national savings account for 37.5% of GDP, and by 2009 it has reached 52% (according to the annual statistical yearbook from China); and two since the year. After the implementation of the policy of family planning in China, the population structure of our country has changed greatly. The most outstanding one is the change of age structure. The aged population of 65 years and above is increasing year by year, so that China will face the problem of aging population.
This paper, based on the Permanent income hypothesis (Friedman, 1957) theory of income hypothesis, and introduces population age structure variables, selects 28 interprovincial panel data for 1990-2009 years and constructs a econometric model, and uses panel estimation method and empirical analysis to study the population structure change in China. The conclusion is that the change of population structure has an important influence on the savings of the residents in China, and there is a negative correlation between the two. Among them, the child dependency ratio has a significant negative correlation with the savings rate, and the elderly dependency ratio has a positive correlation with the savings rate, and the latter is more significant than the former; There is a significant positive correlation between the growth rate and the savings rate, and the natural growth rate of the population has a significant negative correlation with the savings rate, and the social basic pension insurance growth rate has a significant negative correlation with the savings rate.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C92-05;F832.22

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