2010-2050中国劳动力供求趋势研究

发布时间：2018-07-24 16:27

【摘要】：我国自上世纪70年代初开始实行计划生育政策以来,伴随着经济社会的发展,人口态势和劳动力供求状况均发生了重大转变。本文从人口态势变化的视角出发,在回顾了劳动力供求的历史及现有研究成果的基础之上,对未来四十年我国的劳动力供求变化发展趋势作了分析和预测。得到以下的结论：一是中国总人口增长已近尾声。中国总人口的峰顶2025年前后抵达,中国人口增长已近尾声。中国人口峰顶到来的时间早于预期,峰顶时的人口规模小于预期,抵达峰顶后掉头向下的速度也超过预期。二是中国劳动适龄人口的顶峰已经到来。中国正处在劳动年龄人口和经济活动人口最多的时期,劳动适龄人口顶峰已经降临。2020年后中国劳动适龄人口规模的持续快速下降将不可避免。不仅如此,劳动年龄人口占总人口比例将快速下降,劳动适龄人口内部的老化将愈演愈烈。三是中国劳动参与率将持续下降。自改革开放以来,中国的劳动力参与率一直处于高位状态,到上个世纪90年代初期开始呈缓慢下降的发展趋势。四是中国目前劳动力市场供需平衡。目前我国劳动力市场的供求总体上基本平衡,但是在部分地区、部分行业出现了一定程度上的“用工荒”现象,这种现象总体而言是一种结构性的短缺,和产业结构及人力资源培养不适应市场需求等有一定的关系。五是中国劳动力市场供需形势正在发生根本性的逆转。中国今后的经济增长模式势必要摆脱依靠低成本、高投入的劳动密集型和资源密集型产业以维持产业竞争力的方式,而是应逐渐转变到依靠提高技术水平和加大人力资本投入的模式上来。在得到以上结论的基础上,为更好地应对我国人口转变和劳动力供给变化,本文提出几点建议：(1)调整生育政策,维持人口可持续发展能力；(2)鼓励劳动参与,缓解未来劳动力短缺矛盾；(3)消除各种制度障碍,促进劳动力自由流动；(4)建立统一的劳动力市场,提高劳动力配置效率；(5)加强就业服务体系建设。我国劳动力数量庞大、城乡二元结构突出,已有的研究在劳动力供求量和劳动力结构方面依旧存在较多争议,部分推算和预测的方法可能还需改进。本文就何谓剩余劳动力、中国农村以往劳动力为何巨大过剩、农村流动和转移出来的都是剩余劳动力、农村剩余劳动力究竟数量上有多少等问题做出尝试性的回答。最后,本文认为,劳动力供给缺口的不断增大,将对我国的经济发展产生重大影响：将推动经济增长方式转变；促进收入分配形势改善；推动区域经济的平衡发展。此外,劳动力短缺还将对抬高我国的创业门槛、产业结构的优化乃至民族的兴衰以及世界范围内的通货膨胀、世界价格体系的重新定位等产生深远的影响。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of family planning policy in the early 1970s, with the development of economy and society, the situation of population and labor supply and demand has changed greatly. Based on the review of the history of labor supply and demand and the existing research results, this paper analyzes and forecasts the development trend of labor supply and demand in China in the next forty years from the perspective of the change of population situation. Draw the following conclusions: first, China's total population growth has come to an end. The peak of China's total population reached around 2025, and China's population growth is nearing its end. China's population peak arrived earlier than expected, with a smaller than expected population at the peak and a faster turn down than expected when it reached the peak. Second, the peak of China's working age population has arrived. China is in the period of working age population and economic activity population, the peak of working-age population has already come, and the continuous and rapid decline of China's working-age population after 2020 will be inevitable. Moreover, the proportion of working-age population to the total population will decline rapidly, and the internal aging of working-age population will intensify. Third, China's labor force participation rate will continue to decline. Since the reform and opening up, China's labor force participation rate has been in a high state, until the early 1990s began to show a slow decline in the development trend. Fourth, China's current labor market supply and demand balance. At present, the supply and demand of China's labor market are basically balanced, but in some regions, some industries have to a certain extent "shortage of workers" phenomenon, this phenomenon in general is a structural shortage. And industrial structure and human resources training do not adapt to market demand and so on. Fifth, the supply and demand situation of China's labor market is undergoing a fundamental reversal. In the future, China's economic growth model is bound to get rid of the labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries that rely on low cost and high input in order to maintain industrial competitiveness. Instead, it should be gradually changed to rely on improving the level of technology and increasing investment in human capital. On the basis of the above conclusions, in order to better deal with the changes of population and labor supply in China, this paper puts forward several suggestions: (1) adjusting the fertility policy to maintain the ability of sustainable development of population; (2) encouraging labor participation. To alleviate the contradiction of labor shortage in the future; (3) to eliminate various institutional obstacles and promote the free flow of labor force; (4) to establish a unified labor market and improve the efficiency of labor allocation; (5) to strengthen the construction of employment service system. The quantity of labor force in our country is huge and the dual structure of urban and rural areas is prominent. There are still many controversies in the quantity of labor supply and demand and the structure of labor force, and some methods of calculation and prediction may still need to be improved. This paper gives a tentative answer to the question of what is surplus labor force, why there was a huge surplus of labor force in rural areas in the past, how many surplus labor forces are floating and transferring out of rural areas, and how many rural surplus labors there are. Finally, this paper holds that the increasing gap of labor supply will have a great impact on the economic development of our country: it will promote the transformation of economic growth mode, promote the improvement of income distribution situation, and promote the balanced development of regional economy. In addition, the shortage of labor force will also have a profound impact on raising the threshold of entrepreneurship, optimizing the industrial structure and even the rise and fall of the nation, inflation in the world and the repositioning of the world price system.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C92-05;F249.2

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