人口空间要素与绿色发展空间的反馈机制研究

发布时间：2018-07-30 07:26

【摘要】：人类文明经历了漫长的原始文明、农业文明之后,于18世纪进入了辉煌的工业文明。上世纪中叶至今,人类已迈进生态文明时代,它是人与人、人与自然、人与社会和谐共生、良性循环、全面可持续发展为目标的新的社会形态。十八大以后,党中央国务院高度重视生态文明建设,提出了一系列改革意见,而绿色发展是生态文明建设的应有之义,也是时代的潮流。在经济社会发展中,由于对资源的过度开发和消耗,以及对环境的破坏,资源环境承载力已进入超负荷状态,在这种情况下,如何保证经济社会可持续发展,是我们面对的难题。在此背景下,依赖科技进步,提高资源利用效率是最有效的解决路径,而人是一种生产要素,作为经济发展的资源要素,也是绿色发展中的重要要素,其参与了生产过程,是推动科技进步的核心力量。目前,在绿色发展的理念下,人口要素对绿色发展的影响机制并不明确,因此,有必要研究人这一重要要素在绿色发展中的作用,从而更好地推动绿色发展。而明确人口在绿色发展中的驱动作用,实质上就是从空间的角度研究人口空间分布与绿色发展空间的关系,其需要对人口在空间的不同属性结构进行细致的刻画与分析。本文梳理了绿色发展的研究成果。从水文保护、绿色保护、文物保护、地质灾害保护和环境保护这五个角度,运用系统论、可持续发展理论和生态文明建设理论对绿色发展空间进行刻画,并构建包括9大类21小类要素的绿色发展空间指标体系。在此基础上,应用地理信息方法与空间分析技术,量化指标转化为不同类型的绿色发展空间格局;梳理了人口资源的研究成果,将人口要素划分为资源型人口和创新型人口,并在GIS计算方法的支撑下,获得两大类人口空间要素的分布格局。最后,采用多元logistic回归模型,构建人口空间要素与绿色发展空间的反馈方程及反馈机制。论文以成都市作为研究对象,通过实施上述研究方法,得到如下研究结论:(1)创新型人口的增加,提高了建设用地的利用效率和潜力,导致土地需求下降。通过创新型人口的增长,在保持经济变量不变的情况下,绿色发展空间中承载人口的适宜建设区面积明显减少,创新型人口增加与传统资源型增加提升相比,前者驱动的绿色发展空间格局承载的人口密度显著提升。(2)创新型人口的增长对绿色发展具有正向激励作用;其适宜建设区面积大幅度减少,建设用地利用效率增加,限建空间和禁建空间得到有效的保护。传统资源型人口的增加对绿色发展具有负面激励作用。其适宜建设区面积大幅度增加,适度建设区面积显著减少,极大的占用了区域未来潜在的利用空间。(3)本文在方法上,建立了一套基于全空间尺度下的要素表达、格局划分、成因反馈的分析框架,为分析人与绿色发展空间之间的协调关系提供了有效的实施路径。
[Abstract]:Human civilization experienced a long primitive civilization, agricultural civilization, in the 18 th century into a brilliant industrial civilization. Since the middle of last century, mankind has stepped into the era of ecological civilization. It is a new social form, which is a harmonious symbiosis between man and man, man and nature, man and society, virtuous circle and comprehensive sustainable development. After the 18th National Congress, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council attached great importance to the construction of ecological civilization, put forward a series of reform opinions, and green development is the proper meaning of the construction of ecological civilization, but also the trend of the times. In the economic and social development, due to the over-exploitation and consumption of resources and the destruction of the environment, the carrying capacity of the resources and environment has entered into a state of overload. In this case, how to ensure the sustainable development of the economy and society, Is the problem we face. In this context, depending on the progress of science and technology, improving the efficiency of resource utilization is the most effective way to solve the problem. Human is a kind of production factor. As a resource element of economic development, it is also an important factor in green development, and it participates in the production process. It is the core force to promote the progress of science and technology. At present, under the concept of green development, the influence mechanism of population factors on green development is not clear. Therefore, it is necessary to study the role of human as an important factor in green development so as to promote green development better. To clarify the driving role of population in green development is essentially to study the relationship between population spatial distribution and green development space from the perspective of space, which needs to describe and analyze the different attribute structure of population in space. This article combs the research achievement of green development. From the five angles of hydrological protection, green protection, cultural relic protection, geological hazard protection and environmental protection, this paper describes the green development space by using the system theory, the theory of sustainable development and the theory of ecological civilization construction. And construct the spatial index system of green development including 9 categories and 21 subcategories. On this basis, applying the method of geographic information and spatial analysis, the quantitative indexes are transformed into different types of spatial pattern of green development, and the research results of population resources are combed, and the population elements are divided into resource-based population and innovative population. Under the support of GIS calculation method, the distribution pattern of two kinds of population spatial elements is obtained. Finally, the multivariate logistic regression model is used to construct the feedback equation and feedback mechanism between population spatial elements and green development space. This paper takes Chengdu as the research object, through the implementation of the above research methods, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) the increase of innovative population improves the efficiency and potential of construction land use, and leads to the decline of land demand. With the growth of innovative population and keeping the economic variables unchanged, the area of the suitable construction area for carrying population in the green development space is obviously reduced, and the increase of innovative population is compared with the increase of traditional resource type. The population density of the spatial pattern of green development driven by the former is significantly increased. (2) the growth of innovative population has a positive effect on green development, and the area of the suitable construction area is greatly reduced, and the efficiency of land use for construction is increased. Restricted space and forbidden space are effectively protected. The increase of the traditional resource type population has the negative incentive function to the green development. The area of the suitable construction area is greatly increased and the area of the moderate construction area is significantly reduced, which greatly occupies the potential utilization space of the region in the future. (3) in this paper, a set of elements representation and pattern division based on the whole spatial scale are established in this paper. The analysis framework of cause feedback provides an effective way to analyze the harmonious relationship between human and green development space.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.5

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