首都圈人口空间分布格局的形成:集聚力与离散力的“博弈”

发布时间：2018-08-01 08:16

【摘要】：当前首都圈人口空间分布总体上呈现以京津为中心向外围递减的格局,本文通过理论和实证分析这一分布格局的形成机制,得到以下结论:当前首都圈人口空间分布格局的形成并非一蹴而就,初始的人口规模和自然地理禀赋是其形成和发展的基础;首都圈"中心—外围"的人口空间分布格局是一系列集聚力和离散力"博弈"和"对抗"的结果,其中就业机会、工资水平以及反映科教实力的高校数量是主要的集聚力,而房价、交通拥堵以及水资源短缺是主要的离散力,水资源短缺的制约作用最大;该分布格局也是各城市处于不同经济发展阶段的反映,中心超大城市已处于工业化发展后期,对高端劳动力和为高端劳动力服务的低端劳动力均有较大的需求,而首都圈外围城市还处于工业化初期或中期阶段,资本密集型产业仍是主导产业,对人口和劳动力的吸纳能力弱。今后除了需要遵循城市化发展本身的规律以外,改善和调节上述导致人口过度集聚的集聚力和离散力及其对比关系,通过政府力量介入,尤其是京津冀一体化战略的大力推进和实施,加快河北省城市化发展的步伐,尽快缩小与北京、天津的区域发展差距将成为合理布局人口空间格局,促进首都圈人口、资源、环境、经济协调发展的必由之路。
[Abstract]:At present, the spatial distribution of population in the capital circle generally presents a decreasing pattern with Beijing and Tianjin as the center. This paper analyzes the formation mechanism of this distribution pattern through theory and empirical analysis. The following conclusions are drawn: the formation of the spatial distribution pattern of population in the Capital Circle is not accomplished overnight, and the initial population scale and natural geographical endowment are the basis for its formation and development; The spatial distribution pattern of population in the "center-periphery" of the capital circle is the result of a series of agglomeration forces and discrete forces "game" and "confrontation", in which employment opportunities, wage levels and the number of colleges and universities that reflect the strength of science and education are the main ones. Housing price, traffic congestion and water shortage are the main discrete forces, and the restriction of water resources shortage is the greatest. This distribution pattern is also a reflection of the different economic development stages of each city, and the central megacities are in the late stage of industrialization. There is a greater demand for high-end labor and low-end labor services for high-end labor, while the peripheral cities of the capital circle are still in the early or middle stages of industrialization, and capital-intensive industries are still the leading industries. The capacity to absorb the population and labor force is weak. In addition to following the laws of urbanization itself, we need to improve and regulate the above agglomeration and dispersion forces that lead to excessive population agglomeration and their comparative relations, and intervene through government forces. In particular, with the vigorous promotion and implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration strategy, speeding up the pace of urbanization in Hebei Province, and narrowing the regional development gap with Beijing and Tianjin as soon as possible, the regional development gap between Beijing and Tianjin will become a rational layout of the population spatial pattern and promote the population and resources in the capital circle. Environment, the only way to coordinate economic development.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目:首都圈人口空间格局优化及生态环境压力疏解研究(14ARK003)
【分类号】：C922

【相似文献】