我国人口转型特征及其对我国宏观经济运行的影响

发布时间：2018-08-02 21:00

【摘要】：本文结合我国计划经济时期人口健康状况大幅改善以及计划生育政策实施背景，以人口转型过程中我国居民微观个体教育投资以及消费储蓄等行为为切入点，试图探索这一人口转型过程对我国宏观经济运行的影响。本文分析从我国人口转型过程中所呈现出来的特征这一宏观视角出发，利用县级层面数据分析人口特征变量变动的微观结构参数特征以及人口对经济影响的统计规律，，在此基础上建立宏观经济模型细致分析我国人口转型对宏观经济运行的影响机制，遵循“宏观现象出发——分析微观结构参数基础——建立宏观模型”的经济学分析思路。本文同时采用了数理统计、应用计量经济学以及理论宏观经济学的分析和建模方法，借鉴人口学与经济学分析问题的不同思路和视角，对上述问题进行分析和研究。本文经验研究表明预期寿命、人口年龄结构等对经济增长率具有统计显著的影响，且我国不同地区人口转型进程不同步导致的人口特征因素是影响我国地区经济发展不平衡的重要因素；与此同时，利用正态分布和Weibull分布都可以对影响我国人口年龄结构的关键因素——人口死亡年龄概率分布——做出非常好的模拟和预测；此外，我国改革开放以来有利于经济增长的人口转型以及之后的人口老龄化趋势均与我国人口死亡年龄概率分布右移且方差变小的集中化趋势密切相关。之后的理论模型分别对经验研究中预期寿命影响经济增长的动态传导路径、我国近年来居高不下的储蓄率和投资率是否合理以及人口特征变量影响我国宏观经济运行的渠道进行了模拟和分析。结论指出首先预期寿命影响经济增长的内在逻辑是一段时间内人口寿命的持续增长速度对经济增长率有着非常重要的影响；其次，尽管我国改革开放以来的储蓄率和投资率居高不下，并被认为是推动我国经济高速增长的极其重要的因素，但实际上这一高储蓄率、高投资率与高经济增长率的现象与我国全要素生产率大幅提高以及有利于经济增长的人口转型等宏观经济社会背景密切相关，从而意味着到目前为止我国高储蓄率和高投资率是与我国特定宏观背景相适应的合理水平；本文最后部分将理论模型扩展为多期世代交替模型，对我国人口转型过程中的人口特征变量进行了校准和分析，在此基础上考察了人口转型对我国劳动生产率的影响，从而部分地揭示了“全要素生产率”的含义，并综合分析了人口因素影响我国经济增长的各种可能的渠道及机制。
[Abstract]:Based on the background of population health improvement and the implementation of family planning policy during the planned economy period, this paper takes the micro-individual education investment and consumption savings as the starting point in the process of population transition. This paper attempts to explore the impact of this population transition process on the macroeconomic operation of China. From the macro perspective of the characteristics in the process of population transition in China, this paper analyzes the characteristics of the microstructural parameters of the change of population characteristic variables and the statistical law of the impact of the population on the economy by using the data at the county level. On this basis, the macroeconomic model is established to analyze the influence mechanism of the population transition on the macro-economic operation in detail, following the economic analysis idea of "starting from the macro phenomenon-the basis of analyzing the microstructural parameters-establishing the macro model". At the same time, this paper uses mathematical statistics, econometrics and theoretical macroeconomics analysis and modeling methods, using different ideas and perspectives of demography and economics analysis to analyze and study the above problems. This empirical study shows that life expectancy and age structure have statistically significant effects on the economic growth rate. And the population characteristic factors caused by the different regions' population transition process are the important factors that affect the imbalance of the regional economic development in our country, at the same time, Using both normal distribution and Weibull distribution, we can make a very good simulation and prediction of the key factor that affects the age structure of the population in China-the probability distribution of population death age. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, the population transition that is favorable to economic growth and the trend of population aging after reform and opening up in China are closely related to the centralization of the probability distribution of death age and the decrease of variance in China. The following theoretical models are used to analyze the dynamic conduction paths in empirical studies where life expectancy affects economic growth. Whether the high savings rate and investment rate are reasonable in recent years and whether the population characteristic variables influence the macroeconomic operation of our country are simulated and analyzed. The conclusion is that the inherent logic that life expectancy affects economic growth is that the sustained growth rate of population life expectancy has a very important effect on economic growth rate over a period of time. Although the savings rate and investment rate in China have remained high since the reform and opening up, and are considered to be extremely important factors in promoting the rapid economic growth of our country, in fact, this high savings rate, The phenomenon of high investment rate and high economic growth rate is closely related to the macro-economic and social background, such as the substantial increase in total factor productivity and the population transformation that is conducive to economic growth. This means that the high savings rate and high investment rate in China are reasonable levels suitable for the specific macro background of our country. In the last part of this paper, the theoretical model is extended to the multi-period intergenerational model. Based on the calibration and analysis of the population characteristic variables in the process of population transition in China, this paper examines the impact of population transition on China's labor productivity, thus partially revealing the meaning of "total factor productivity". The possible channels and mechanisms of population factors affecting China's economic growth are also analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：F224;F123.16;C924.2

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