浙江省人口老龄化系数中长期预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-08-03 15:08

【摘要】：改革开放以来,随着总和生育率下降和平均预期寿命增长,浙江省人口老龄化进程不断加快。据统计数据显示,1978年浙江省老龄化系数只有4.94%,1988年底达到了7.07%,至2008年老龄化系数已增长到11.3%。浙江是我国老龄化突出的省份之一,人口老龄化的加剧不仅会加重社会负担,而且还不利于人力资源的合理配置。所以,正确认识老龄化的发展历程和成因,准确预测老龄化系数的变动趋势和峰值期,及时提出改善人口结构的有效对策,将对浙江省的经济发展、社会保障等具有重大意义。本文根据浙江省1978～2008年户籍人口数据,综合运用数据挖掘方法、人口学以及人口统计学的相关理论,建立向量自回归模型对浙江省2009～2050年的总人口数、老年人数和老龄化系数进行预测分析,并根据预测结果提出相应的政策建议。论文的思路如下: 首先,介绍浙江省总人口数、老年人口数和老龄化系数的发展历程,并结合历史数据对浙江省老龄化的成因进行剖析。然后,针对平均预期寿命和对应年份尚存人数之间的关系,从跨年份的角度提出基本定理并对定理进行证明,基于定理预测2010年、2020年、2030年和2040年不分性别的人口完全生命表,根据上述生命表估算2012～2050年每年的老年人口净增加数,确定老年人口数的变动路径和峰值期,并以此提出能够判断老年人口数长期变动趋势特征的命题。接着,基于浙江省1978～2008年户籍人口数据,利用格兰杰(Granger)因果检验、ADF单位根检验和约翰森(Johansen)协整检验,找出影响总人口数或老年人口数的变量并建立人口系统,在人口系统基础上建立多个向量自回归模型;对模型进行各种统计检验后,针对平均预期寿命、省际净迁入人数和总和生育率设定四种不同的控制方案,分别预测浙江省2009～2050年的总人口数和老年人口数。最后,根据预测的总人口数和老年人口数计算老龄化系数,对总人口数、老年人口数以及老龄化系数的变动趋势进行分析,结合预测结果提出政府应对人口老龄化的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the decline of total fertility rate and the increase of average life expectancy, the aging process of Zhejiang population has been accelerated. According to statistics, the coefficient of aging in Zhejiang Province was only 4.94 in 1978, reached 7.07 at the end of 1988, and increased to 11.3 in 2008. Zhejiang is one of the outstanding aging provinces in China. The aggravation of population aging will not only increase the social burden, but also be unfavorable to the rational allocation of human resources. Therefore, it is of great significance for the economic development and social security of Zhejiang Province to correctly understand the development course and causes of aging, accurately predict the changing trend and peak period of aging coefficient, and put forward effective countermeasures to improve the population structure in time. Based on the census population data of Zhejiang Province from 1978 to 2008, this paper establishes a vector autoregressive model for the total population of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2050 by using the data mining method, demography and relevant theories of demography. The number of the elderly and the coefficient of aging are forecasted, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward according to the forecast results. The ideas of this paper are as follows: firstly, the paper introduces the development course of the total population, the elderly population and the aging coefficient of Zhejiang Province, and analyzes the causes of the aging in Zhejiang Province with historical data. Then, in view of the relationship between average life expectancy and the number of people remaining in the corresponding year, the basic theorem is proposed and proved from a cross-year perspective, based on which the full life table of the population, regardless of sex, is predicted in 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040. According to the above life table, the annual net increase of the elderly population from 2012 to 2050 is estimated, the changing path and peak period of the number of the elderly population are determined, and the proposition that can judge the characteristics of the long-term changing trend of the elderly population is put forward. Then, based on the census population data of Zhejiang Province from 1978 to 2008, using Granger (Granger) causality test and Johnson (Johansen) cointegration test, we find out the variables that affect the total population or the number of the elderly population and set up the population system. On the basis of population system, several vector autoregressive models were established, and four different control schemes were established for average life expectancy, interprovincial net migration and total fertility rate after various statistical tests were carried out on the model. The total population and the elderly population of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2050 are predicted respectively. Finally, according to the predicted total population and the number of the elderly population to calculate the aging coefficient, the change trend of the total population, the number of the elderly population and the coefficient of aging is analyzed, and the countermeasures and suggestions for the government to deal with the aging of the population are put forward in combination with the forecast results.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.24

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