人口老龄化对长三角经济增长的影响

发布时间：2018-08-07 15:32

【摘要】：第五次人口普查显示,中国于2000年开始进入老龄化时代。根据老龄协会的预测,老龄化将伴随中国的整个21世纪。长三角地区是中国老龄化程度最严重的地区之一,具有中国老龄化的典型性。同时,该地区的老龄化速度与程度早于中国整体老龄化的速度与程度。老龄化将对经济和社会带来广泛而深远的影响。长三角是中国经济的一个非常重要的增长极,研究长三角的老龄化有着重要的意义。本文第一章,简要介绍了老龄化、抚养比、总和生育率等重要的人口学概念,并简要介绍了人口红利、人口转变和各派人口经济学理论,如古典政治经济学派、马尔萨斯、马克思、凯恩斯、索维、西蒙等各家的人口经济学理论,同时还介绍了生命周期假说和人口经济学理论的实证分析。第二章首先介绍了长三角区位的界定,接着分析长三角地区的老龄化特点和原因,分析得出长三角人口老龄化是由人口转变规律和计划生育的双重因素共同导致的结果。第三章分析了长三角人口老龄化对经济增长的影响。长三角人口老龄化将导致该地区：一、人口红利下降甚至人口亏损；二、劳动力老龄化、数量减少和生产力下降；三、人口老龄化将带来沉重的医疗养老问题；四、老龄化前期导致储蓄增加,后期导致储蓄下降；五、老龄化将影响到长三角的消费结构；六、老龄化还会影响长三角地区的产业结构。第四章提出了长三角老龄化的解决措施。一是实现经济增长方式的转变；二是实行人口政策的调整；三是充分利用和开发人口红利；四是完善长三角地区的社会保障；五是推进户籍制度改革。与长三角地区不同的是,全中国的人口老龄化与全世界人口老龄化在影响、原因和解决措施有很大的不同。因此,在第五章,笔者在总结了本文观点和介绍了老龄协会对中国老龄化趋势百年预测后,将人口老龄化的相关分析简要地拓展到全中国和全世界,希望以此引起更多的人(尤其是人口政策决策层)的注意,做到尽早准备、未雨绸缪。最后,在附录中收录了2010年和2011年中国及全世界的最新人口数据。
[Abstract]:According to the fifth census, China entered an aging age in 2000. According to the Association for the elderly, aging will accompany China throughout the 21 st century. Yangtze River Delta is one of the most serious aging areas in China. At the same time, the speed and degree of aging in this area is earlier than that in China as a whole. Aging will have a wide and profound impact on the economy and society. The Yangtze River Delta is a very important economic growth pole in China. It is of great significance to study the aging of the Yangtze River Delta. In the first chapter, some important demographic concepts, such as aging, dependency ratio, total fertility rate and so on, are briefly introduced, and the demographic dividend, population transition and various theories of population economics, such as classical political and economic school, Malthus, are briefly introduced. Marx, Keynes, Sauvigne, Simon and other various theories of population economics, but also introduced the life cycle hypothesis and population economics theory empirical analysis. The second chapter first introduces the definition of the location of the Yangtze River Delta, then analyzes the characteristics and causes of aging in the Yangtze River Delta region, and concludes that the aging of the population in the Yangtze River Delta region is caused by the dual factors of population transformation and family planning. The third chapter analyzes the impact of aging population on economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta. The aging of the population in the Yangtze River Delta will lead to the following: first, the population dividend will decline or even the population will lose money; second, the aging of the workforce will reduce the number and productivity; third, the aging of the population will bring about a heavy problem of medical care for the aged; fourth, The aging will lead to the increase of savings in the early stage and the decrease of savings in the later period; fifth, aging will affect the consumption structure of the Yangtze River Delta; sixth, the aging will also affect the industrial structure of the Yangtze River Delta region. The fourth chapter puts forward the solution of aging in Yangtze River Delta. One is to realize the transformation of economic growth mode; the other is to implement the adjustment of population policy; the third is to make full use of and develop the population dividend; the fourth is to improve social security in the Yangtze River Delta region; and the fifth is to promote the reform of the household registration system. Different from the Yangtze River Delta, the aging of the whole population in China is different from that in the whole world, and the causes and solutions are quite different. Therefore, in the fifth chapter, after summarizing the views of this paper and introducing the forecast of aging trend in China by the Association of Aging, the author briefly extends the analysis of population aging to the whole China and the whole world. In this way, we hope to attract more people's attention, especially at the decision-making level of population policy, so as to prepare and prepare ahead of time. Finally, the latest population data for China and the world in 2010 and 2011 are included in the appendix.
【学位授予单位】：中央民族大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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