人口结构视角下的“人口红利”效应分析

发布时间：2018-08-26 15:21

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济高速发展,而与此同时,人口结构也发生着快速的变化。在近30年中,人口结构变化所产生的“人口红利”效应对我国经济发展起到了巨大的推动作用,但随着劳动力资源相对丰富的优势逐渐减弱,如何充分挖掘并延长“人口红利”效应已经成为一个十分值得关注的问题。本文的研究思路是从我国目前“人口红利”情况变化引出的问题出发,在宏观上定性定量分析人口结构变化的趋势、研究劳动力变动的影响因素以及对劳动力数量和劳动参与率这两个关键指标同经济发展的GDP指标进行实证分析,论证“人口红利”对经济的正向影响以及“人口红利”即将开始消失,同时从劳动力因素的劳动参与率、人力资本、劳动力流动等角度来提出建议来延长“人口红利”或是挖掘第二“人口红利” 实证结果表明,人口出生率和人口结构变动是显著相关的,同时我国改革开放至今劳动力人口的比重同它对经济的推动力均是正相关的；此外,经济的增长和劳动参与率也呈正相关,相关系数为0.869,因此,通过提高劳动参与率来扩大“人口红利”是很有效的办法。图6幅,表9个,参考文献46篇。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed at a high speed, and at the same time, the population structure has also undergone rapid changes. In the past 30 years, the "demographic dividend" effect caused by the change of population structure has played a great role in promoting the economic development of our country, but with the relative abundant advantages of labor resources gradually weakened, How to fully exploit and prolong the "demographic dividend" effect has become a very important issue. The research idea of this paper is to proceed from the problem of the situation change of "population dividend" at present in our country, and analyze the trend of population structure change qualitatively and quantitatively in macroscopical level. This paper studies the influencing factors of labor force change and makes an empirical analysis on the two key indicators of labor force quantity and labor force participation rate and the GDP index of economic development. Demonstrating the positive impact of the "demographic dividend" on the economy and that the "demographic dividend" is about to begin to disappear, at the same time from the labor force factor to the labour force participation rate, human capital, From the point of view of labor mobility, it is suggested to extend the "demographic dividend" or to excavate the second "demographic dividend". The empirical results show that the birth rate and the demographic change are significantly related. At the same time, the proportion of labor force in China's reform and opening up to date is positively correlated with its driving force on the economy; in addition, the economic growth and labour force participation rate are also positively correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.869, so, It is an effective way to expand the demographic dividend by increasing the labour force participation rate. 6 figures, 9 tables, 46 references.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2

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