消费抚养比研究

发布时间：2018-08-26 15:29

【摘要】：人口抚养比是用来反映人口老龄化对社会经济影响的重要指标,是政策制定和有关研究的重要参考指标和研究切入点,但是由于传统的人口抚养比存在诸多缺陷：一是对劳动力人口规模的估计与实际不符；二是人口抚养比的同质性假设忽略了老人与儿童、不同年龄老人之间的群体差异造成的抚养负担程度差异。因此,不能准确反映社会实际抚养负担情况。为了对社会抚养负担有更为准确的认识,本文从消费角度出发,考虑不同抚养负担对象的消费模式的差异,在对家庭消费中老人、儿童、成人消费权重进行研究的基础上,以消费抚养比来衡量我国社会实际的抚养负担水平。并结合具体的人口数据,模拟了我国部分年份和地区的消费抚养比指标,并与传统人口抚养比进行比较。最后,本文深入分析了影响未来消费抚养比变化的因素,发现：人口年龄结构、不同抚养对象群体的消费权重、老年人的居住安排和收入水平是影响未来消费抚养比变化的主要原因,未来老年消费抚养比水平将随着老年人口规模的增大和老年人口的消费潜力被激发而骤增,未来的老年抚养负担压力非常之大。从消费抚养比角度出发,我们对应对未来养老负担的加剧提出了一些建议：一是要制定适度的社会保障水平,引导老年人口合理消费；二是鼓励家庭养老模式,减少养老成本；三是利用国际人力资源,转移养老负担。
[Abstract]:The dependency ratio of the population is an important indicator used to reflect the socio-economic impact of population ageing and an important reference indicator and research entry point for policy formulation and related research. However, there are many defects in the traditional population dependency ratio: first, the estimation of the size of the labor force does not match the actual situation; second, the homogeneity of the population dependency ratio neglects the elderly and children. The degree of dependency burden caused by different age group difference is different. Therefore, can not accurately reflect the actual burden of social support. In order to have a more accurate understanding of the burden of social support, this paper, from the perspective of consumption, takes into account the different consumption patterns of different dependent burden objects, on the basis of the study of the consumption weight of the elderly, children and adults in family consumption. In terms of consumption dependency ratio to measure the level of the actual burden of our society. Combined with the specific population data, the paper simulates the consumption dependency ratio index in some years and regions of China, and compares it with the traditional population dependency ratio. Finally, this paper deeply analyzes the factors that affect the future consumption dependency ratio, and finds that: the age structure of population, the consumption weight of different dependency groups, The living arrangement and income level of the elderly are the main reasons that affect the change of the consumption dependency ratio in the future. With the increase of the size of the elderly population and the stimulation of the consumption potential of the elderly population, the level of the consumption dependency ratio of the elderly will increase sharply in the future. The burden of future old age support is very great. From the point of view of consumption and dependency ratio, we put forward some suggestions to deal with the aggravation of the future burden of the aged: first, to establish a moderate level of social security to guide the elderly population to consume reasonably; second, to encourage the family to provide for the aged and to reduce the cost of providing for the aged; Third, the use of international human resources, the transfer of pension burden.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.24

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