生育政策调整对城乡居民医疗保险财政负担的影响研究
发布时间:2018-08-30 09:17
【摘要】:当前,公共财政不仅要补助城乡居民医保基金筹集,还要承担其可能存在的赤字风险。随着人口老龄化程度加深和财政收入增速放缓,城乡居民医保财政负担日益加重。为解决人口老龄化及其引发的系列问题,国家接连调整生育政策,那么,调整生育政策能减轻城乡居民医保的财政负担吗?研究以江苏省为例,通过构建精算模型对生育政策调整前后城乡居民医保财政负担的变化情况进行仿真分析,并得到以下结论:第一,如果不调整生育政策,2090年时城乡居民医保财政负担是当年公共财政支出预测值的119.78倍;第二,如果按照"单独二孩"政策的实际生育意愿计算,预测期内累计财政负担相比原政策将下降3.35个百分点;第三,"全面二孩"政策下,生育意愿越高,累计财政负担下降越快。当生育意愿达到100%时,累计财政负担相较原政策将下降62.27个百分点。
[Abstract]:At present, public finance not only subsidizes the raising of health insurance fund for urban and rural residents, but also bears the risk of deficit. With the deepening of population aging and the slow growth of fiscal revenue, the financial burden of medical insurance for urban and rural residents is increasing day by day. In order to solve the aging of the population and its series of problems, the country has adjusted its fertility policy. Can the adjustment of birth policy reduce the financial burden of medical insurance for urban and rural residents? Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the change of health insurance financial burden of urban and rural residents before and after the adjustment of fertility policy is simulated and analyzed by establishing an actuarial model, and the following conclusions are obtained: first, If the fertility policy is not adjusted, the financial burden of health insurance for urban and rural residents in 2090 will be 119.78 times the projected value of public expenditure in that year; second, if calculated according to the actual fertility intentions of the "single two-child" policy, In the forecast period, the accumulated financial burden will be reduced by 3.35 percentage points compared with the original policy. Thirdly, under the policy of "all-around two-child", the higher the fertility will be, the faster the cumulative financial burden will decrease. When the fertility intention reaches 100 percent, the accumulated financial burden will be 62.27 percentage points lower than the original policy.
【作者单位】: 江苏大学管理学院;中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;
【基金】:国家社会科学基金项目“生育政策调整对中国社会保险基金可持续性的影响评估及相关对策研究”(批准号15XRK005)
【分类号】:F842.684;R197.1
本文编号:2212645
[Abstract]:At present, public finance not only subsidizes the raising of health insurance fund for urban and rural residents, but also bears the risk of deficit. With the deepening of population aging and the slow growth of fiscal revenue, the financial burden of medical insurance for urban and rural residents is increasing day by day. In order to solve the aging of the population and its series of problems, the country has adjusted its fertility policy. Can the adjustment of birth policy reduce the financial burden of medical insurance for urban and rural residents? Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the change of health insurance financial burden of urban and rural residents before and after the adjustment of fertility policy is simulated and analyzed by establishing an actuarial model, and the following conclusions are obtained: first, If the fertility policy is not adjusted, the financial burden of health insurance for urban and rural residents in 2090 will be 119.78 times the projected value of public expenditure in that year; second, if calculated according to the actual fertility intentions of the "single two-child" policy, In the forecast period, the accumulated financial burden will be reduced by 3.35 percentage points compared with the original policy. Thirdly, under the policy of "all-around two-child", the higher the fertility will be, the faster the cumulative financial burden will decrease. When the fertility intention reaches 100 percent, the accumulated financial burden will be 62.27 percentage points lower than the original policy.
【作者单位】: 江苏大学管理学院;中南财经政法大学公共管理学院;
【基金】:国家社会科学基金项目“生育政策调整对中国社会保险基金可持续性的影响评估及相关对策研究”(批准号15XRK005)
【分类号】:F842.684;R197.1
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