四川省人口分布及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-08-30 17:59

【摘要】：优化人口布局，对于合理引导人口有序转移，协调人口、资源、环境与社会之间的关系，促进区域可持续发展具有重要作用。论文以地理学、人口学的区域空间理论为理论基础，参考了已有研究成果，以县为统计单元，借助ArcGIS、GeoDA、Geograpically Weighted Regression、灰色建模系统（IV版）和SPSS等软件，揭示了四川人口密度、人口比重、人口地理集中度、净流动人口和人口城镇化等静态空间分布，利用洛伦兹曲线、集中化指数、人口分布重心和空间自相关分析方法，选取了1990、2000和2010年3个时间截面，研究了四川人口空间演化特征，通过定性分析与因子分析、灰色关联分析、空间回归分析、地理加权回归分析等定量分析相结合的方式探讨了人口空间演化的影响因素，经过研究得出以下几点结论：（1）全省县域人口分布空间差异十分显著，大致沿朝天区、江油市、安县、都江堰市、大邑县、雨城区、汉源县、沐川县和屏山县一线及其以东为四川盆地人口稠密区，呈马蹄形分布，以西人口数量少，密度低；人口密度从盆地核心区向北、西、南三面递减，成德绵经济带及各地级市市辖区人口密度较高。（2）全省净流动人口规模巨大，净流出县域数量和人口规模均远大于净流入县域数量和人口规模，净流出地区在全省广泛分布，而净流入地区则主要在成都、各地级市市辖区以及川西部分县域。（3）城镇化发展水平总体上已进入中期阶段，空间分布的绝对差异和相对差异均较大，成都平原和各地级市市辖区较高，，并沿几条主要出川交通大动脉分布。（4）三个年份的洛伦兹曲线偏离均衡线较大，集中化指数分别为0.4419、0.4280和0.4138，均有减小的趋势，人口分布的空间结构呈均衡发展特征；人口重心均在几何中心的东偏南，并自东偏北向西偏南移动，分别为30.281°N,104.982°E、30.283°N,104.931°E和30.267°N,104.829°E,共计向西移动直线距离14805.764ｍ。（5）全局Moran's I指数分别为0.8384、0.8361和0.8260，表明人口分布存在很强的聚集性，但有微弱降低的趋势；局部自相关分析表明人口分布总体结构较为稳定，四川盆地是人口分布的核心区，川西山地高原地区为人口稀疏区；成都平原及临近地区，川南的自贡、泸州和川东北的南充、广安市辖区是人口分布的热点区域，川西山地高原地区是人口分布的冷点区域。（6）地形、气候、矿产、历史基础、经济发展水平和交通条件对人口分布产生重要影响；经济实力、社会消费和人才素质、经济活动产业人口结构是影响人口分布的重要因素；各县平均海拔、人口自然增长对人口分布起负向作用，而较高的人均GDP和社会消费品零售总额能有效促进人口聚集。基于以上结论，有针对性地提出了相应的政策建议，并对未来进一步研究作出了展望。
[Abstract]:Optimizing population distribution plays an important role in guiding orderly population transfer, coordinating the relationship among population, resources, environment and society, and promoting regional sustainable development. Based on the regional spatial theory of geography and demography, and referring to the existing research results, the paper reveals the population density and population proportion of Sichuan with the help of ArcGIS,GeoDA,Geograpically Weighted Regression, grey modeling system (IV) and SPSS software. By using Lorentz curve, concentration index, center of gravity and spatial autocorrelation analysis method, three time sections of 1990 ~ 2000 and 2010 were selected, including population geographical concentration, net floating population and population urbanization, and so on, in which three time sections were selected, such as Lorentz curve, centralization index, center of gravity of population distribution and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The characteristics of population spatial evolution in Sichuan are studied. The influencing factors of population spatial evolution are discussed through the combination of qualitative analysis and factor analysis, grey correlation analysis, spatial regression analysis, geographical weighted regression analysis, etc. The following conclusions are drawn from the study: (1) the spatial difference of population distribution in counties of the province is very significant, roughly along Chaotian District, Jiangyou City, an County, Dujiangyan City, Dayi County, Yucheng District, Hanyuan County, The first line and east of Muchuan County and Pingshan County are densely populated areas of Sichuan Basin, with a horseshoe distribution, a small number of population to the west and a low density, and the population density decreases from the core area of the basin to the north, west and south. The density of population in Chengdemian economic belt and municipal districts at prefectural level is relatively high. (2) the scale of net floating population in the whole province is huge, the number and population scale of net outflow from county territory are much larger than that of net inflow into county territory and population scale. The net outflow areas are widely distributed in the province, while the net inflow areas are mainly in Chengdu, the prefecture-level municipal districts and some counties in western Sichuan. (3) the level of urbanization has generally entered the middle stage. The absolute and relative differences of spatial distribution are large, Chengdu Plain and municipal districts of each prefectural level are higher, and they are distributed along several main arteries of traffic out of Sichuan. (4) the Lorentz curve deviates from the equilibrium line in three years. The centralization index was 0.4280 and 0.4138, respectively. The spatial structure of population distribution showed the characteristic of balanced development, and the center of gravity of population was located in the center of geometry from east to south, and moved from east to north to west to south. It is 30.281 掳Nu 104.982 掳E = 30.283 掳N ~ + 104.931 掳E and 30.267 掳N ~ (1) 104.829 掳E, the total distance of straight line moving westward is 14805.764m. (5) the global Moran's I index is 0.83840.8361 and 0.8260respectively, which indicates that the population distribution has a strong agglomeration, but has a tendency of slight decrease. The local autocorrelation analysis shows that the population distribution is relatively stable, the Sichuan basin is the core area of population distribution, the mountainous plateau area of western Sichuan is the sparsely populated area, the Chengdu plain and its adjacent areas, Zigong in south Sichuan, Nanchong in Luzhou and northeast Sichuan, Guang'an municipal district is a hot area of population distribution, and the mountainous plateau area of western Sichuan is the cold point of population distribution. (6) topography, climate, mineral resources, historical basis, economic development level and traffic conditions have important influence on population distribution; Economic strength, social consumption, talent quality, economic activity and industrial population structure are important factors affecting population distribution. The average elevation of each county and natural population growth play a negative role in population distribution. Higher per capita GDP and total retail sales of consumer goods can effectively promote population aggregation. Based on the above conclusions, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward, and the future research is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：四川师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C924.24

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