调整人口年龄结构是新时期计生政策的重点——“允许生二孩”要转为“鼓励生二孩”

发布时间：2018-08-30 19:21

【摘要】：我国连续30年实行强制计划生育后,人口总量增加的问题得到了缓和,但是出现了人口年龄结构问题:新生儿减少的同时,老年人增加,我们快速地进入了老龄化社会。如前文所述,新时期新的人口规律开始接力并且已经发挥出了强劲的作用。这样,前30年"强制一孩"带来的人口年龄结构上急剧收缩问题,会在今后年轻人"自愿一孩"的趋势中持续和严重化。相对于那些发达国家缓慢地进入老龄化,我国是快速和持续地老龄化。首先是生活水平快速提升带来的"快速延寿""增加"了人口,其次是新生儿数量的"政策性减少"和"规律性减少"接续发生,由此造成的人口年龄结构问题就格外突出。要缓和这个矛盾,就需要现在开始,保持新生儿数量不再沿着原来强制计划生育造成的比例下滑。应当以正常世代替代率为标准制定我们的计生政策,要求和鼓励计划生育后新生一代每个育龄妇女生育2个孩子;同时"三孩"的政策也要作部分调整。这样才能达到"人口年龄结构合理"和"人口总量适度"的均衡。
[Abstract]:After 30 years of compulsory family planning in China, the problem of population increase has been eased, but the problem of population age structure has appeared: with the decrease of newborns and the increase of the elderly, we have entered the aging society quickly. As mentioned earlier, the new demographic laws have begun to relay and have played a strong role. In this way, the sharp contraction in the age structure of the population brought about by forced one-child in the first 30 years will continue and become serious in the trend of "voluntary one-child" among young people in the future. Compared with those developed countries slowly aging, our country is aging quickly and continuously. First of all, the rapid increase in life expectancy brought about by the rapid improvement of living standards has increased the population, followed by the continuous occurrence of "policy reduction" and "regular decrease" in the number of newborns, resulting in a particularly prominent population age structure problem. To ease this conflict, we need to start now and keep the number of newborns from falling down from the original forced birth control. Our family planning policy should be formulated on the basis of the normal replacement rate of generations, which requires and encourages the new generation after family planning to have two children per woman of childbearing age, and at the same time, the policy of "three children" should also be partially adjusted. Only in this way can we achieve the equilibrium of "reasonable age structure of population" and "moderation of total population".
【作者单位】：中国财政科学研究院;
【分类号】：C924.21

【相似文献】