东北老工业基地人口变动、人口红利与经济增长——基于面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-08-31 07:53

【摘要】：利用2004-2014年东北老工业基地地级城市面板数据建立计量模型,实证分析人口变动、人口红利对经济增长的影响及其区域差异。结果显示:东北老工业基地通过储蓄在一定程度上达到了资本积累的目的,还存在一定程度的人口红利,其中辽宁优势明显、吉林一般,黑龙江最少。在人口数量变动中,人口出生率与经济增长有显著的负相关性,人口密度与经济增长有显著的正相关。在人口结构变动中,人口年龄结构与经济增长呈"倒U"型特点;人口性别结构与经济增长有显著的负相关;人口产业结构、人口文化结构对经济增长均有显著的正向作用;存在明显的区域差异。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in the old industrial base of Northeast China from 2004 to 2014, the econometric model is established to empirically analyze the impact of population change and demographic dividend on economic growth and their regional differences. The results show that the northeast old industrial base has achieved the purpose of capital accumulation to a certain extent through saving, and there is still a certain degree of population dividend, in which Liaoning has obvious advantages, Jilin is general, Heilongjiang is the least. In the change of population quantity, the birth rate has a significant negative correlation with the economic growth, and the population density has a significant positive correlation with the economic growth. In the change of population structure, the age structure of population and economic growth are "inverted U" type, the sex structure of population has a significant negative correlation with economic growth, the structure of population industry and the structure of population culture have significant positive effects on economic growth. There are obvious regional differences.
【作者单位】：湖北师范大学经济与管理学院;中南财经政法大学经济学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2015BZ0302) 湖北省教育厅人文社会科学青年项目(16Q162) 湖北师范大学资源枯竭型城市转型与发展研究中心2016年度开放基金资助项目(Kf2016y10)
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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