河北省人口数量对能源需求的影响和预测

发布时间：2018-09-01 17:18

【摘要】：近年来，我国能源消费的增长速度非常快，尤其是像煤、石油、天然气等这些不可再生资源，人类对其开发利用后，在现阶段不可能再生，对于这些不可再生能源来说，使用就意味着减少，随着人口数量的增加，及对不可再生能源的开发和利用，最终会造成能源的相对减少，而不能保持原有储量或再生。不可再生能源数量的减少给人们造成日益严重的能源消费压力，迫使中国不得不采取各种政策以加强能源的使用效率和降低能源的使用量。现在人类也正在面临着能源匮乏的难题，能源消费与经济可持续发展是我们当前所面对的挑战，是备受关注的重要问题。中国是世界上人口最多的大国，从而决定了我国也将是未来能源消费的大户，我国的能源消费尚未摆脱传统工业不可持续的模式。回顾产业革命200多年以来发达国家实现工业化的路径，我们不难发现，他们走过的是一条传统工业化的道路。传统工业化道路即经济增长量以高投入、能源高消耗、环境严重破坏为代价的，所以在占全球人数不到15%的英国、德国、美国等40多个国家先后分别完成工业化以后，世界储备能源也遭到了严重的消耗和浪费。据调查统计，这些发达国家在工业化进程中消耗了全球已探明能源的70%。而中国作为发展中国家，中国正处在社会主义建设阶段，面对有限的能源，中国在努力探索着一条合理利用能源的中国特色社会主义工业化道路。从历史的角度来看，中国仍是一个以能源物质消耗为主的国家，中国走的仍然是科技水平相对较低、劳动者素质和管理因素对经济的贡献率偏低的传统工业化道路。在能源大量被消耗的同时，人口数量又在不断增加，面对一定的土地、有限的资源以及人口不断增加所造成的人类日益增长的各种需要，预测和评估人口增加的趋势、能源需求的变动情况以及人口数量变动对能源需求的影响就显得至关重要。关于我国的工业化道路问题党中央代表三次大会都作出了系统阐述。其中，2003年江泽民同志代表第十五届中央委员会向十六大做出的报告指出：“实现工业化仍然是我国现代化进程中所面临的艰峻历史性任务，我国全面建设小康社会的目标是可持续发展能力不断增强，，生态环境得到改善，资源利用率显著提高，要达到这一目标，就必须坚持走出经济效益好、科技含量高、能源消耗少、环境污染程度低、充分发挥我国特有的人力资源优势新型的工业化道路。”2007年10月胡锦涛主席在中国共产党第十七次人民代表大会上又指出：“要坚持走中国特色新型工业化道路，坚持由主要依靠增加物质资源消耗向主要依靠科技进步、劳动者素质提高、管理创新转变。”两次大会都明确的强调了未来要走新型工业化道路。胡锦涛同志又在十八大报告中指出“推动能源生产，控制能源消费总量，加强节能降耗，支持低碳节能产业和新能源、可再生能源发展，确保国家能源安全。”由此说明，中国高度重视不可再生能源的节约和使用。本文在中国固有国情的基础上，讨论了我国总体能源和河北省能源现状，通过以河北省为例，建立Logistic模型、数学模型，估计并预测出河北省的人口数量，然后建立河北省人口与能源总量之间关系的模型，对我省能源消耗前景做出预测，为河北省合理利用能源，提高能源的利用率，制定相关政策提供依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the growth rate of energy consumption in China is very fast, especially for the non-renewable resources such as coal, oil and natural gas, which can not be renewable at this stage after human development and utilization. For these non-renewable energy sources, the use means to reduce, with the increase of population, and the development and utilization of non-renewable energy resources. The reduction of the amount of non-renewable energy causes increasing pressure on people's energy consumption, forcing China to adopt various policies to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy use. Now mankind is also facing energy shortage. China is the most populous country in the world, which decides that China will also be a major energy consumer in the future. China's energy consumption has not shaken off the unsustainable mode of traditional industry. Review of Industrial Revolution 200 It is not difficult for us to find that the developed countries have gone through a traditional way of industrialization for many years. The traditional way of industrialization is that the economic growth is at the cost of high input, high energy consumption and serious environmental damage. According to the survey statistics, these developed countries consume 70% of the world's proven energy in the process of industrialization. As a developing country, China is in the stage of socialist construction, facing the limited energy, China is trying to explore a combination. From a historical point of view, China is still a country with energy and material consumption as the main source of industrialization. China is still taking the traditional industrialization road with relatively low scientific and technological level, low contribution rate of laborers'quality and management factors to the economy. In the face of certain land, limited resources and increasing population, it is very important to forecast and assess the trend of population growth, the change of energy demand and the impact of population change on energy demand.
Three congresses of the CPC Central Committee on China's road to industrialization have made a systematic exposition. In 2003, Comrade Jiang Zemin, on behalf of the 15th Central Committee, made a report to the 16th National Congress, pointed out that "realizing industrialization is still a arduous and historic task in the process of China's modernization, and building a well-off society in an all-round way in China." The goal of the conference is to continuously enhance the capacity of sustainable development, improve the ecological environment and improve the utilization rate of resources. To achieve this goal, we must persist in stepping out of the new industrialization road with good economic benefits, high scientific and technological content, low energy consumption and low environmental pollution, and give full play to the unique advantages of human resources in China. " At the 17th People's Congress of the Communist Party of China, President Hu Jintao pointed out that "we should adhere to the road of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics, from increasing the consumption of material resources to relying mainly on scientific and technological progress, improving the quality of laborers and innovating management." Comrade Hu Jintao also pointed out in the report of the 18th National Congress that China attaches great importance to the conservation and use of non-renewable energy.
On the basis of China's inherent national conditions, this paper discusses the overall energy and energy situation of Hebei Province in China. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the paper establishes a Logistic model, a mathematical model, estimates and predicts the population of Hebei Province, and then establishes a model of the relationship between population and total energy in Hebei Province to predict the energy consumption prospects of Hebei Province. It will provide a basis for Hebei to make rational use of energy and improve the utilization rate of energy and formulate relevant policies.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F426.2;C924.24

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