东北地区人口流失问题研究
发布时间：2018-09-05 19:27
【摘要】：东北地区一直以来都是我国非常重要的重工业基地,在我国的经济建设中处于举足轻重的地位,也是我国人口主要的迁入地。改革开放之后,随着重工业的逐年落寞和东南沿海地区的迅速崛起,大批人口开始迁出东北,流入经济迅速发展的其他省市。人口的流失进一步导致经济的衰退。形成恶性循环。人口的流出是多方面原因造成的,为深入的剖析东北地区人口迁移的机制。本文运用经济学理论构建了扩展的托达罗模型,并在此基础之上,运用五普、六普及统计年鉴上的数据对相关影响因子做了实证研究。其结果很好地解释了东北地区人口流失的各方面原因,阐明了东北地区人口迁移的影响机理。在此基础之上,提出了相应的政策建议。本文共分为六章,第一章为绪论,主要介绍了本文的研究背景、意义、框架及主要内容,另外还有主要的创新点和不足之处。第二章是文献综述,介绍了人口迁移方面的国内外的研究成果,国外方面介绍了推拉理论、刘易斯二元经济结构模型、费景汉-拉尼斯模型和托达罗模型4个理论模型。国内方面分别从人口流出的规模方向、影响因素和人口迁移的经济效应三个角度介绍了一些研究成果。第三章介绍了东北地区的人口迁移的历史演进,并在时间和空间维度上进行了横向和纵向比较。第四章在原有的托达罗模型上建立了扩展的托达罗模型,并在此基础上对东北地区人口迁移问题进行了因素分析。第五章在全国范围内对影响人口流入的的各种因素进行了相关分析、因子分析和多元回归分析;进一步计算了各省市对人口吸引力的综合因子得分并进行了排名。第六章为结论和政策建议,为东北地区的人口迁出问题提供了一系列的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Northeast China has always been a very important heavy industrial base in our country, in the economic construction of our country in a pivotal position, but also the main migration of our population. After the reform and opening up, with the desolation of heavy industry and the rapid rise of the southeast coastal areas, a large number of people began to move out of the Northeast, flowing into other provinces and cities with rapid economic development. The loss of population further led to a recession. Form a vicious circle. The outflow of population is caused by many reasons, in order to deeply analyze the mechanism of population migration in Northeast China. In this paper, the extended Todaro model is constructed by using economic theory, and on the basis of this, the author makes an empirical study on the relevant influence factors by using the data from the five popular and six popular statistical yearbooks. The results show that the causes of population loss in Northeast China are well explained, and the influence mechanism of population migration in Northeast China is clarified. On this basis, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the research background, significance, framework and main content, in addition, there are main innovation points and shortcomings. The second chapter is a literature review, introducing the research results of population migration at home and abroad, including push-pull theory, Lewis dual economic structure model, Fjinghan-Lanis model and Todaro model. Some research results are introduced from three aspects: the direction of population outflow, the influencing factors and the economic effect of population migration. The third chapter introduces the historical evolution of population migration in Northeast China, and makes a horizontal and vertical comparison between time and space. Chapter four establishes the extended Todaro model based on the original Todaro model and analyzes the factors of population migration in Northeast China. In the fifth chapter, the factors influencing the inflow of population are analyzed, factor analysis and multivariate regression analysis, and the comprehensive factor scores of the provinces and cities to the population attraction are calculated and ranked in the fifth chapter. The sixth chapter provides a series of policy suggestions for the migration of population in Northeast China.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2
[Abstract]:Northeast China has always been a very important heavy industrial base in our country, in the economic construction of our country in a pivotal position, but also the main migration of our population. After the reform and opening up, with the desolation of heavy industry and the rapid rise of the southeast coastal areas, a large number of people began to move out of the Northeast, flowing into other provinces and cities with rapid economic development. The loss of population further led to a recession. Form a vicious circle. The outflow of population is caused by many reasons, in order to deeply analyze the mechanism of population migration in Northeast China. In this paper, the extended Todaro model is constructed by using economic theory, and on the basis of this, the author makes an empirical study on the relevant influence factors by using the data from the five popular and six popular statistical yearbooks. The results show that the causes of population loss in Northeast China are well explained, and the influence mechanism of population migration in Northeast China is clarified. On this basis, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter is the introduction, mainly introduces the research background, significance, framework and main content, in addition, there are main innovation points and shortcomings. The second chapter is a literature review, introducing the research results of population migration at home and abroad, including push-pull theory, Lewis dual economic structure model, Fjinghan-Lanis model and Todaro model. Some research results are introduced from three aspects: the direction of population outflow, the influencing factors and the economic effect of population migration. The third chapter introduces the historical evolution of population migration in Northeast China, and makes a horizontal and vertical comparison between time and space. Chapter four establishes the extended Todaro model based on the original Todaro model and analyzes the factors of population migration in Northeast China. In the fifth chapter, the factors influencing the inflow of population are analyzed, factor analysis and multivariate regression analysis, and the comprehensive factor scores of the provinces and cities to the population attraction are calculated and ranked in the fifth chapter. The sixth chapter provides a series of policy suggestions for the migration of population in Northeast China.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2
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