东北三省人口分布空间格局演化及其驱动因素研究

发布时间：2018-09-06 19:30

【摘要】：东北地区作为全国重要老工业基地,在面临新一轮振兴机遇的形势下,人口分布的集疏变化及其驱动因素亟待细致梳理。根据中国第四、第五、第六次分县人口普查资料,运用洛伦兹曲线、人口密度相对变化率和空间自相关分析方法对东北地区1990~2010年、176个县域的人口分布空间格局演化进行深入分析,在此基础上,选取10个自然和社会经济指标,使用偏最小二乘法(PLS)对东北地区人口分布空间格局演化的影响因素进行定量分析,研究发现:(1)从总体分布格局变化特征来看,20 a来人口密度始终是黑龙江省吉林省辽宁省,且以省会城市为主的多中心"T"型人口分布空间格局越来越明显;(2)1990~2010年,东北地区人口密度经历了从相对分散到相对集中的变化过程,且人口密度高的地区所占土地面积小,人口密度低的地区占地面积大。人口空间分布呈现显著的正的空间自相关特征,即人口密度存在高高、低低集聚现象;(3)从人口密度变化类型来看,1990~2010年,共80个县域属于快速增加和缓慢增加类型,快速降低和缓慢降低类型的县域共96个,其中辽宁省县域人口密度变化"两极化"现象较为明显;(4)自然因素与社会经济因素同时作用于人口密度变化,但社会经济发展水平是人口密度变化的主要影响因素。
[Abstract]:As an important old industrial base in China, Northeast China is confronted with a new round of rejuvenation opportunities, and the population distribution and its driving factors need to be carefully combed out. According to the fourth, fifth and sixth county census data of China, using the Lorentz curve, The relative change rate of population density and spatial autocorrelation analysis method were used to analyze the evolution of spatial pattern of population distribution in 176 counties in Northeast China from 1990 to 2010. On this basis, 10 natural and social economic indexes were selected. The factors influencing the evolution of spatial pattern of population distribution in Northeast China were quantitatively analyzed by partial least square method (PLS). The results showed that: (1) the population density of Jilin Province, Heilongjiang Province, had always been the population density in the past 20 years according to the characteristics of the overall distribution pattern. The spatial pattern of multi-center "T" type population distribution is becoming more and more obvious. (2) from 1990 to 2010, the population density in Northeast China has changed from relative dispersion to relative concentration, and the land area occupied by high population density areas is small. Areas with low population density cover a large area. The spatial distribution of population shows significant positive spatial autocorrelation characteristics, that is, the population density is high and low, (3) from 1990 to 2010, 80 counties belong to the type of rapid increase and slow increase. There are 96 counties with rapid and slow reduction, in which the phenomenon of "polarization" of population density in Liaoning Province is obvious. (4) Natural factors and social and economic factors act on the change of population density at the same time. But the level of social and economic development is the main influence factor of the change of population density.
【作者单位】：东北师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41630749)资助~~
【分类号】：C922

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