河北

发布时间：2018-09-08 17:50

【摘要】： 人口因素和经济增长之间的关系是相互影响的,即人口因素会对经济增长的形态、方式和速度产生影响,经济增长的结果也会影响人口增长速度和人口转变过程。其中人口年龄结构变动所产生的“人口红利”效应对一个国家或地区的经济增长具有重要影响。因此,如何充分发挥“人口红利”效应成为一个值得关注的重大问题。本文以“人口红利”理论为基础,以河北省为研究对象,在对河北省人口转变过程进行描述的基础上,探讨了河北省人口年龄结构转变所带来的“人口红利”效应在不同方面的影响。模型分析结果显示：随着河北省人口年龄结构的变动,抚养负担降低,对河北省储蓄水平的提高具有促进作用；对消费水平和消费结构变化也有一定影响；河北省人口抚养负担的变动,也对劳动力投入产出造成影响,抚养比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关关系。上述结果都在不同程度上显示出人口年龄结构变动所带来的“人口红利”对河北省经济增长的促进作用。通过对河北省“人口红利期”的判定,从促进河北省“人口红利”效应最大化的角度出发,对河北省目前在农村剩余劳动力、劳动参与率、高素质人才等方面存在的问题进行了探讨,并提出了相关的对策措施,以期能够最大限度地收获“人口红利”。
[Abstract]:The relationship between population factors and economic growth is mutual, that is, population factors will have an impact on the form, mode and speed of economic growth, and the result of economic growth will also affect the speed of population growth and the process of population transformation. The "demographic dividend" effect caused by the change of population age structure has an important effect on the economic growth of a country or region. Therefore, how to give full play to the "demographic dividend" effect has become a major issue worthy of attention. Based on the theory of "demographic dividend" and taking Hebei Province as the object of study, this paper describes the process of population transition in Hebei Province. This paper discusses the effect of "demographic dividend" brought by the change of population age structure in Hebei Province in different aspects. The results of model analysis show that with the change of population age structure in Hebei Province, the burden of dependency decreases, which can promote the improvement of saving level of Hebei Province, and also has some influence on the change of consumption level and consumption structure. The change of population dependency burden in Hebei Province also affects the input and output of labor force, and the dependency ratio has a negative correlation with economic growth. These results show that the demographic dividend brought by the change of population age structure can promote the economic growth of Hebei Province. Based on the judgment of "population dividend period" in Hebei Province, from the point of view of promoting the maximization of "demographic dividend" effect in Hebei Province, the labor participation rate of surplus labor force in rural areas in Hebei Province is analyzed. This paper probes into the problems of high quality talents and puts forward some relevant countermeasures in order to maximize the "population dividend".
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2;F205

【相似文献】