武汉城市圈人口对经济发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-09-08 11:16

【摘要】： 武汉城市圈是建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会的综合配套改革实验区和中部崛起的战略要地,它的发展不仅有利于带动湖北省经济的发展,也有利于带动中部地区乃至全国的经济发展。因此武汉城市圈的发展引起了学术界密切关注,尤其是近几年关于武汉市城市圈的研究成果越来越多,研究的角度也各有不同,但是从“人口”对经济发展的影响角度进行深入研究的成果却没有,这可能是因为武汉城市圈发展并不成熟,在数据收集和整理方面也存在很多困难。本文主要从比较研究和实证研究的角度对武汉城市圈的人口经济关系进行详细的分析,试图对这一空缺做点弥补。论文的主要内容分为五章,具体包括：第一章,首先论述了本文的研究背景和研究意义,阐述了本文的研究方法和技术路线,最后提出了本文的创新之处。第二章,对人口各因素对区域经济发展的影响机制进行了详细的梳理,为本文的分析建立理论基础。第三章、第四章,本文的重点章节。第三章把长三角、珠三角以及中原城市群、长株潭城市群作为比较对象,从横向比较的角度考察武汉城市圈在人口与经济发展方面存在的相对优势和劣势。第四章用定量分析的方法考察人口规模、人口质量和人口结构对经济发展的具体影响。研究发现：第一,由于经济发展水平较低,武汉城市圈常住人口负增长,人口外流趋势增强；第二,武汉城市圈人口已经进入低自然增长阶段,老龄化程度相对较低,对经济发展的负作用还没有显现出来,正处于有利于经济发展的人口红利期；第三,武汉城市圈内的人才优势并不明显,虽然武汉市是全国第二大教育基地,具有超强的人力资本生产能力,但由于其经济发展水平有限,对人才的吸纳能力并不强,人力资本消费能力弱。武汉市作为区域内的人才高地,也还没有发挥对周边地区的积极辐射作用；第四,武汉城市圈就业结构和产业结构较优,主要表现在其第三产业比重相对较高,对就业人员的吸纳能力也强,但存在就业结构和产业结构不协调的问题；第五,武汉城市圈虽然被誉为中部崛起的龙头,但是其综合经济实力偏弱,在本文选取五个城市群中,其劳动生产率、人均GDP、经济密度、人口城市化水平都是最低的,并没有实现“生态而有效率”的居住方式。第五章,通过前面的分析,提出适合武汉城市圈发展的人口经济建议,主要包括：实施人口城市化战略,适当扩大城市圈人口规模,促进城市圈又好又快发展；充分挖掘人口红利,积极促进人口就业；建立统一的人才服务平台,为人才流动提供方便；做大做强教育产业；抓住经济全球化、促进中部崛起以及建设两型社会的机遇,不断调整产业结构,转变经济发展方式,把武汉城市圈建设成为真正的中国第四增长极；大力发展高新技术产业和第三产业等。
[Abstract]:Wuhan City Circle is the experimental area of comprehensive reform for building a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society and a strategic location for the rise of the central region. Its development is not only conducive to the economic development of Hubei Province. Also conducive to driving the central region and even the national economic development. Therefore, the development of Wuhan urban circle has attracted close attention in academic circles, especially in recent years, more and more research results have been made on Wuhan city circle, and the angles of research are also different. However, there is no result of in-depth research on the impact of "population" on economic development, which may be due to the immature development of Wuhan City Circle and the difficulties in data collection and collation. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the relationship between population and economy in Wuhan City Circle from the perspective of comparative research and empirical research, and tries to make up for this vacancy. The main contents of this paper are divided into five chapters: the first chapter discusses the research background and significance of this paper, describes the research methods and technical routes of this paper, and finally puts forward the innovation of this paper. In the second chapter, the influence mechanism of population factors on regional economic development is analyzed in detail, which provides a theoretical basis for the analysis of this paper. The third chapter, the fourth chapter, the key chapter of this article. The third chapter takes the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Central Plains Urban agglomeration and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban agglomeration as the comparative objects, and investigates the relative advantages and disadvantages of Wuhan urban circle in terms of population and economic development from the perspective of horizontal comparison. In chapter 4, the quantitative analysis is used to investigate the effect of population size, population quality and population structure on economic development. The results show that: first, due to the low level of economic development, the population of Wuhan urban circle has negative growth and the trend of population outflow is increasing; second, the population of Wuhan urban circle has entered a stage of low natural growth, and the degree of aging is relatively low. The negative effect on economic development has not yet been revealed and is in a period of demographic dividend conducive to economic development. Third, the talent advantage in Wuhan's urban circle is not obvious, although Wuhan is the second largest educational base in the country. It has super human capital production capacity, but because of its limited level of economic development, its ability to absorb talents is not strong, and its human capital consumption ability is weak. Wuhan, as the talent highland in the region, has not yet played an active role in radiation to the surrounding areas. Fourth, the employment structure and industrial structure of Wuhan City Circle are better, mainly reflected in the relatively high proportion of its tertiary industry. The ability to absorb the employed personnel is also strong, but the employment structure and the industrial structure are not in harmony. Fifth, although Wuhan urban circle is praised as the leader of the rise of the central region, its comprehensive economic strength is weak. In this paper, five urban agglomerations are selected. Its labor productivity, per capita GDP, economic density, population urbanization level are all the lowest, and there is no "ecological and efficient" living mode. The fifth chapter, through the previous analysis, puts forward the population economic suggestions suitable for the development of Wuhan urban circle, mainly including: implementing the population urbanization strategy, appropriately expanding the population scale of the urban circle, and promoting the urban circle to develop well and quickly; Fully tap the population dividend, actively promote population employment, establish a unified talent service platform to facilitate the flow of talents, expand and strengthen the education industry, seize the opportunities of economic globalization, promote the rise of the central region, and build a two-oriented society. We should constantly adjust the industrial structure, change the mode of economic development, turn Wuhan City Circle into the real fourth growth pole of China, and vigorously develop high-tech industries and tertiary industries.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

【引证文献】