1990年以来中国人口出生水平变动及预测

发布时间：2018-09-13 13:38

【摘要】：人口出生水平取决于生育水平、生育模式以及育龄妇女比重。文章利用1980—2010年进入生育期的妇女的初育年龄对其终身生育率进行预测,并据此测算1990年、2000年以及2010年三个人口普查年份的人口出生率,结果表明,这三个年份的出生率估计值均能够以较小的误差接近由总和生育率计算得到的人口出生率真实值。在此基础上,文章进一步解释了1990年以来中国人口出生水平持续下降以及近十年来始终处于低水平的现象,是由30岁以下的年轻育龄妇女的生育水平、生育模式(标准化年龄别生育率)和占总人口比重共同下降所致。考虑到二孩政策的全面放开,文章还模拟了高、中、低三种预测情景下2011—2050年中国人口出生规模的变化,指出即使在文章设定的高生育水平方案下,人口出生规模也只能在短期内实现回升。因此,为促进未来人口出生数量渐进增加,保持人口长期均衡发展,生育政策的调整目标仍须适当提高。
[Abstract]:Birth levels depend on fertility levels, fertility patterns and the proportion of women of childbearing age. This paper predicts the lifetime fertility rate of women who enter the reproductive period from 1980 to 2010, and calculates the birth rate in 1990, 2000 and 2010. The results show that, The birth rate estimates for each of the three years can approach the true birth rate calculated from the total fertility rate with a smaller error. On this basis, the article further explains that the birth level of Chinese population has been declining continuously since 1990 and that the birth level of young women of childbearing age under 30 years is the same as that of young women of childbearing age under the age of 30. Fertility patterns (standardized age-specific fertility rates) and the proportion of the total population have declined. In view of the overall liberalization of the two-child policy, the article also simulates the changes in the birth size of China's population in 2011-2050 under three forecasting scenarios, namely, high, middle and low, and points out that even under the high fertility level scheme set out in the article, Birth size can only recover in the short term. Therefore, in order to promote the gradual increase in the number of births in the future and to maintain the long-term balanced development of the population, the adjustment goal of the fertility policy should be raised appropriately.
【作者单位】：常州工学院经济与管理学院;南京农业大学中国粮食安全研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目“人口变化、城乡人口流动和中国的农业与农村发展”(71361140370) 江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD) 常州工学院校级科研基金项目“中国农村迁移与流动人口生育率转变研究”(YN1522)
【分类号】：C924.2

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