人口结构与经济重心空间耦合演化及机制探析——以江苏省为例

发布时间：2018-09-17 13:16

【摘要】：伴随快速城镇化、经济社会转型、人口流动频繁以及人口结构转变成为中国及江苏省的挑战,人口结构与经济的耦合发展问题成为可持续发展最亟需解决的问题。利用第四、五、六次全国人口普查数据,建立人口结构与经济的耦合模型,采取标准差椭圆模型与重心模型、空间重叠性和变动一致性等方法,对江苏省人口结构与经济耦合发展的空间格局演化与其形成机制进行探析。通过研究得到以下结论:(1)1990-2010年,江苏省人口结构与经济的耦合度下降,从较高关联为主转向中等关联为主。耦合类型由低水平型为主转变为拮抗型向磨合型过渡的阶段。经济发展阶段提高,将促进人口结构与经济发展耦合类型不断升级。(2)耦合度标准差椭圆居于江苏省苏中地区的中部,空间上趋向集聚,在西北-东南方向上呈极化趋势。耦合度重心大致位于江都市东部与泰兴市西北部。耦合度重心先向东南转移,后向西北转移,其中南北偏移量最大。(3)经济对耦合度重心空间格局的影响一直最大,人口产业结构仅次于经济发展,二者均是对耦合度最重要的内生驱动力。江苏省各驱动力因子南北差异较大而产生的区域发展势能差,推动各指标重心向均衡点不断移动与跃迁,这是导致人口结构与经济耦合发展空间差异的本质原因。
[Abstract]:With the rapid urbanization, the economic and social transformation, the frequent population flow and the population structure transformation become the challenges of China and Jiangsu Province, the coupled development of population structure and economy has become the most urgent problem to be solved for sustainable development. Using the data of the fourth, fifth and sixth national censuses, the coupling model of population structure and economy is established, and the methods of standard deviation elliptical model and barycenter model, spatial overlap and change consistency are adopted. The spatial pattern evolution and formation mechanism of population structure and economy coupling development in Jiangsu Province are analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) from 1990 to 2010, the coupling degree between population structure and economy in Jiangsu Province decreased from higher correlation to moderate correlation. The coupling type changed from low level type to antagonistic type to running-in type. Increasing the stage of economic development will promote the continuous upgrading of the coupled type of population structure and economic development. (2) the standard deviation ellipse of coupling degree is located in the middle part of Jiangsu Province, which tends to gather in space and is polarized in the northwest to southeast direction. The center of gravity of coupling degree is roughly located in the east of Jiangdu and the northwest of Taixing City. The center of gravity of coupling degree first transfers to southeast, then to northwest, in which the north and south migration is the largest. (3) economy has the greatest influence on the spatial pattern of coupling gravity center, and the population industrial structure is second only to economic development. Both are the most important endogenous driving forces for coupling degree. The difference of potential energy between north and south of Jiangsu Province promotes the shift and transition of the barycenter to the equilibrium point, which is the essential reason for the spatial difference between population structure and economy.
【作者单位】：复旦大学人口与政策发展研究中心;南京师范大学金陵女子学院;南京师范大学地理科学学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大项目“整体性治理——应对老龄社会的公共政策和公共管理体系重构研究(71490735)”,项目负责人:彭希哲;国家自然科学基金项目“中国经济增长波动的区域响应研究(41271128)”,项目负责人:管卫华上海市社科规划青年课题“长江经济带人口老龄化空间格局演化、空间溢出效应及其与上海的空间联动研究(2017ESH001)”,项目负责人:吴连霞
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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