北京市二胎政策对人口老龄化的影响
发布时间：2018-10-04 20:26
【摘要】：由于我国二十世纪七十年代制定并实施了计划生育政策,减缓了青壮年人口数量的增长速度,成为限制部分人口增长的因素,从而导致了人口老龄化问题日渐显现。本文就此问题进行了探讨与研究。本文将北京人口发展的特点和“单独二孩”政策相结合,着重研究了此政策对于北京人口结构的影响以及通过改变人口结构而造成老龄化的变化。通过利用Leslie模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的分析,分别得到两种预测模型,并预测出对应的各个年龄段的人口数量,分析其改进方法。对于模型一,先根据已查到的十年人口普查数据,采用Leslie人口模型,考虑各年龄段在死亡率、性别比例的差别,将人口按五岁一个年龄段,分为二十组,着重分析了“单独二孩”政策对各年龄段女性总和生育率的影响。在整理了各年龄段的总和生育率后,结合独生子女比例及其生育意愿得出了“单独二孩”政策下各年龄段育龄女性的新总和生育率,最后利用Matlab软件进行编程、Excel进行数据处理,得到了2010年至2050年各年龄段的人口数量,并根据模型处理结果阐述了自己的见解。对于模型二,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型,根据北京十年人口普查数据来计算模型内部参数,可以得到关于北京总人口的灰色模型预测公式。然后根据2000年至2009年的北京各个年龄段的人口数据,重新得到对应各个年龄段的灰色预测模型的内部参数以及预测公式。然后结合2014年的“单独二孩”政策预测未来十个阶段(每5年为一个阶段)的各个年龄段的人口数量。最后对两种模型的预测结果进行分析和研究,得出“单独二孩”政策对北京市户籍人口老龄化的影响。
[Abstract]:Since China formulated and implemented the family planning policy in the 1970s, it slowed down the growth rate of the number of the young and middle-aged population, and became the factor of limiting some population growth, which led to the aging of the population. This article has carried on the discussion and the research to this question. In this paper, the characteristics of population development in Beijing are combined with the policy of "single two-child", and the influence of this policy on Beijing's population structure and the change of aging caused by changing the population structure are emphatically studied. Through the analysis of Leslie model and grey GM (1K1) forecasting model, two forecasting models are obtained, and the corresponding population size of each age group is predicted, and the improved method is analyzed. For model one, the population is divided into 20 groups according to five years of age and one age group, using the Leslie population model and taking into account the differences in mortality and sex ratio between different age groups, according to the data of the 10-year census that have been collected. The effect of single-child policy on the total fertility rate of women of all ages was analyzed. After sorting out the total fertility rate of each age group, combined with the proportion of one-child and their willingness to have children, the new total fertility rate of women of all ages under the policy of "single two-child" was obtained. Finally, the data were processed by using Matlab software. The population size of each age group from 2010 to 2050 was obtained, and their views were expounded according to the results of the model. For the second model, the grey GM (1 ~ 1) model is used to calculate the internal parameters of the model according to the data of the Beijing 10-year census, and the grey model prediction formula for the Beijing population can be obtained. Then, according to the population data of each age group in Beijing from 2000 to 2009, the internal parameters and prediction formula of grey forecasting model corresponding to each age group are obtained again. Then, combined with the 2014 "single two-child" policy, it predicts the number of people of all ages in the next ten stages (one every five years). Finally, the results of the two models are analyzed and studied, and the influence of the policy of "single two-child" on the aging of the household registration population in Beijing is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：C924.21
本文编号：2251763
[Abstract]:Since China formulated and implemented the family planning policy in the 1970s, it slowed down the growth rate of the number of the young and middle-aged population, and became the factor of limiting some population growth, which led to the aging of the population. This article has carried on the discussion and the research to this question. In this paper, the characteristics of population development in Beijing are combined with the policy of "single two-child", and the influence of this policy on Beijing's population structure and the change of aging caused by changing the population structure are emphatically studied. Through the analysis of Leslie model and grey GM (1K1) forecasting model, two forecasting models are obtained, and the corresponding population size of each age group is predicted, and the improved method is analyzed. For model one, the population is divided into 20 groups according to five years of age and one age group, using the Leslie population model and taking into account the differences in mortality and sex ratio between different age groups, according to the data of the 10-year census that have been collected. The effect of single-child policy on the total fertility rate of women of all ages was analyzed. After sorting out the total fertility rate of each age group, combined with the proportion of one-child and their willingness to have children, the new total fertility rate of women of all ages under the policy of "single two-child" was obtained. Finally, the data were processed by using Matlab software. The population size of each age group from 2010 to 2050 was obtained, and their views were expounded according to the results of the model. For the second model, the grey GM (1 ~ 1) model is used to calculate the internal parameters of the model according to the data of the Beijing 10-year census, and the grey model prediction formula for the Beijing population can be obtained. Then, according to the population data of each age group in Beijing from 2000 to 2009, the internal parameters and prediction formula of grey forecasting model corresponding to each age group are obtained again. Then, combined with the 2014 "single two-child" policy, it predicts the number of people of all ages in the next ten stages (one every five years). Finally, the results of the two models are analyzed and studied, and the influence of the policy of "single two-child" on the aging of the household registration population in Beijing is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：C924.21
【引证文献】
相关会议论文 前1条
1 傅梦之;;仿用“二胎”政策来解决“二房”产生的不公平性问题[A];湖南省经济学学会年会暨科学发展观与湖南经济协调发展研讨会论文集[C];2008年
，本文编号：2251763
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/shekelunwen/renkou/2251763.html
最近更新
教材专著
