“全面二孩”政策对城镇职工统筹养老金收支缺口的影响分析

发布时间：2018-10-08 17:11

【摘要】：在人口老龄化的背景下,随着我国城镇企业退休职工人数的不断增多,参加工作的劳动人口数量不断减少,城镇职工统筹养老金账户收支情况严峻。面对城镇企业职工统筹养老金收支缺口的严峻形势,2013年,国家提出了“单独二孩”政策,但“单独二孩”政策下年轻人的生育意愿和实际生育率都未达预期,其实施效果并不尽如人意。2015年,国家又提出了“全面二孩”政策,这是对“单独二孩”政策的进一步完善与深化。那么在人口老龄化的大背景下,“全面二孩”政策的实施在什么时点可以改善城镇企业职工统筹养老金收支缺口状况以及改善的幅度有多大,就成为本文研究的重点。本文由五个部分组成,第一部分为绪论,论述了此次研究的背景与意义、研究目的与研究内容、国内外现状、本文的研究方法及创新点。第二部分介绍我国城镇职工养老保险制度及养老金收支现状,先具体介绍我国城镇职工养老金制度的具体演变过程,然后对养老金的运行进行阐释,其中包含养老金的收支平衡原理、我国当前养老金的筹资模式、支付模式、养老金运行过程存在的问题。再介绍我国当前养老金的收支现状,指出当前养老金收支缺口情况,然后分析其成因。第三部分介绍二孩政策对我国人口结构的影响,先对我国人口政策的演变进行梳理,然后对二孩政策和人口结构的关系进行分析,包括二孩政策对劳动人口、生育率、未来人口总趋势的影响。第四部分通过人口预测模型、养老金收支模型对我国未来城镇职工统筹养老金收支进行趋势预测。第五部分是结论部分,通过本文预测研究可知在2019年城镇企业职工统筹养老金收支缺口达到最大,2031年左右城镇企业职工统筹养老金收支相抵,然后出现收支盈余,2031年后盈余逐年增大。最后,本文给出了应该继续稳步推进二孩政策、完善生育保险制度、推进延迟退休等建议。
[Abstract]:Under the background of aging population, with the increasing of the number of retired workers in urban enterprises, the number of working population is decreasing, and the income and expenditure of pension account for urban workers as a whole is grim. In the face of the severe situation of the gap between the income and expenditure of pension funds in urban enterprises, the state put forward the policy of "single two-child" in 2013, but under the policy of "single two-child", the young people's fertility will and actual fertility rate have not reached expectations. In 2015, the government put forward the "comprehensive two-child" policy, which is the further improvement and deepening of the "single two-child" policy. So under the background of the aging population, when can the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy improve the gap of pension income and expenditure of urban enterprises as a whole, and how much extent of improvement will become the focus of this paper. This paper is composed of five parts, the first part is the introduction, which discusses the background and significance of this study, the purpose and content of the study, the current situation at home and abroad, the research methods and innovative points of this paper. The second part introduces the current situation of old-age insurance system and pension income and expenditure of urban workers in China, first introduces the specific evolution process of the pension system of urban workers in China, and then explains the operation of pension. It includes the principle of the balance of income and expenditure of the pension, the financing mode, the payment mode and the problems existing in the operation process of the pension in our country. This paper introduces the current situation of pension income and expenditure in China, points out the gap of current pension income and expenditure, and then analyzes its causes. The third part introduces the influence of the two-child policy on the population structure of our country. It first combs the evolution of our country's population policy, and then analyzes the relationship between the two-child policy and the population structure, including the effect of the two-child policy on the working population and the fertility rate. The impact of future population trends. The fourth part forecasts the trend of future urban workers' pension income and expenditure through population forecasting model and pension income and expenditure model. The fifth part is the conclusion part, through the forecast research of this article, we can see that the gap of the urban enterprise workers' overall pension income and expenditure reached the biggest in 2019, and the urban enterprise workers' overall pension income and expenditure was equal to each other in 2031 or so. Then there was a surplus of income and expenditure, which increased year after 2031. Finally, this paper gives some suggestions that we should continue to promote the two-child policy, improve the maternity insurance system, and push forward the delay of retirement.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.21;F842.67

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