基于省际面板数据的中国人口红利研究

发布时间：2018-10-09 11:49

【摘要】：中国经济在过去的30多年里飞速发展,且经济快速增长与人口年龄结构转变同步。这种同步使得学者注意到“人口红利”现象,即在人口转变过程的某一特定阶段,劳动年龄人口比例的增加有利于人均产出水平的增长。中国经济在经历数十年高速增长后,如今正面临经济增长减速的困境,而中国的人口年龄结构也迎来了拐点。因此,研究经济增长和人口红利之间的关系,有利于更好地认识中国人口与经济增长之间的关系,有利于适时调整政策以促进中国经济增长。本文立足于人口与经济增长的关系,分析人口红利对经济增长的传导机制,并利用截面加权最小二乘法对1990-2010年省际面板数据进行回归分析,用劳动年龄人口系数作为人口红利的衡量指标来分析其对中国各省份经济增长的贡献。实证分析结果表明：劳动年龄人口系数的上升对经济增长有着积极作用,并且劳动年龄人口系数的增长能够解释1990-2010年间一部分的经济增长。人口红利对经济增长贡献最大的地区为新疆,达到28.11%,其余省份的人口红利贡献都在15%以上。由于人口红利只是社会经济增长过程中一个难得的机遇,这种由人口转变所带来的对经济增长的有利条件终将消失,随之而来的是老年人口系数的不断上升。而目前中国的劳动年龄人口系数已经开始下降,劳动年龄人口的绝对数量也开始下降,采取相应措施来减少人口年龄结构变化对经济增长的负面效应是非常必要的。
[Abstract]:China's economy has grown rapidly in the past 30 years, and its rapid growth has kept pace with the age structure of the population. This kind of synchronization makes scholars pay attention to the phenomenon of "demographic dividend", that is, in a certain stage of population transition, the increase of the ratio of working-age population is beneficial to the increase of per capita output level. China's economy is facing a slowdown after decades of rapid growth, and the age structure of its population has reached an inflection point. Therefore, the study of the relationship between economic growth and population dividend is conducive to better understanding of the relationship between population and economic growth in China and the timely adjustment of policies to promote China's economic growth. Based on the relationship between population and economic growth, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of demographic dividend to economic growth, and uses cross-section weighted least square method to analyze the interprovincial panel data from 1990 to 2010. This paper uses the working age population coefficient as a measure of demographic dividend to analyze its contribution to the economic growth of various provinces in China. The empirical results show that the increase of the working-age population coefficient has a positive effect on the economic growth, and the increase of the working-age population coefficient can explain part of the economic growth from 1990 to 2010. Xinjiang is the region with the biggest contribution to economic growth, with the other provinces contributing more than 15 percent. Because the population dividend is only a rare opportunity in the process of social and economic growth, the favorable conditions brought by the population transformation to the economic growth will disappear, and then the elderly population coefficient will continue to rise. At present, the coefficient of working-age population in China has begun to decline, and the absolute number of working-age population has also begun to decline. It is necessary to take corresponding measures to reduce the negative effects of the change of population age structure on economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：C92-05

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