基于生存分析的边境地区人口外流及影响研究

发布时间：2018-10-12 17:12

【摘要】：本文依据国家计生委2011年对吉林省中朝边境地区人口流动的抽样调查数据,运用非参数及半参数的生存分析模型对外流人口特征、流动影响因素进行研究,同时分析了人口外流对该地区经济及社会发展的影响。实证结果表明:年轻、受过良好教育的个体是外流人口中的主力,且韩国为其主要流入地;民族因素显著的影响个体选择,但性别影响并不显著;最后,尽管外出个体汇款对该地区GDP有一定贡献,但劳动力的严重流失不仅抑制了当地经济长期发展,同时也导致了人口老龄化等社会问题。因此,为了发展地方特色经济,当地政府在为吸引高端人才、招商引资创造条件的同时,还应采取措施避免受过良好教育的劳动力进一步外流,以期促进当地经济持续发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the sampling survey data of population flow in the border area between China and North Korea in Jilin Province in 2011, this paper studies the characteristics of the outflow population and the influencing factors of the flow by using the non-parametric and semi-parametric survival analysis model. At the same time, the impact of population outflow on the economic and social development of the region is analyzed. The empirical results show that: young, well-educated individuals are the main outflow population, and South Korea is its main place of entry; ethnic factors significantly affect individual selection, but gender impact is not significant; finally, Although individual remittances contribute to the GDP of the region, the serious loss of labor force not only inhibits the long-term development of the local economy, but also leads to social problems such as the aging of the population. Therefore, in order to develop the local characteristic economy, the local government should take measures to avoid the further outflow of well-educated labor force while creating conditions for attracting high-end talents and attracting investment, in order to promote the sustainable development of local economy.
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目《人口迁移与延边朝鲜族人口负增长关系研究》(项目批准号13BRK023)的中期成果
【分类号】：C922

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