塔里木河流域人口、经济重心转移及空间耦合分析

发布时间：2018-10-13 11:40

【摘要】：中国的区域差异问题一直是国内外学者关注的热点问题之一。在区域经济学中,地区发展的均衡和差异表征指标很多,而人口与经济的空间变化是区域差异研究的一个重要组成部分,也是反映区域差异的两大主要指标。在统一市场信息对等的条件下,区域协调发展的结果应当是经济与人口分布在空间上趋于一致,而经济与人口分布的分离程度则体现了区域发展的非均衡性。近年来,随着国家西部大开发战略的实施,地处我国西北干旱区的塔里木河流域经济差异问题成为学术界和决策部门关注的热点。塔里木河流域地域特色鲜明,人口构成特殊,生态环境极其脆弱。人口与经济发展协调与否,关系到此区域的社会稳定与可持续发展。本文采用区域重心模型与地理集中度等方法,对塔里木河流域过去30年的人口和经济重心的时空演化过程及其空间耦合特征进行了分析,旨在揭示该区人口、经济发展特点及规律,产业结构转变对生态环境造成的影响以及区域人口分布及区域经济的协调程度。主要结论如下： (1)在过去30年间(1980-2009年),塔里木河流域的GDP、耕地面积和三大产业重心均表现出由西向东方向迁移的趋势,而人口重心则由东向西迁移。人口重心与GDP、第二产业、第三产业在经度方向与纬度方向上都表现为负相关。在经度方向上,人口与第一产业为正相关,而人口与耕地面积在经度与纬度上均通过了显著性检验,表现出较强的相关性。 (2)过去的30年,人口分布与GDP、第一产业、第二产业、第三产业、耕地面积的偏离程度显著增强,表明人口分布与经济发展不均衡性加剧。第一产业重心相对人口重心偏移距离变化较为复杂,但二者仍存在较大的不均衡性；耕地面积与人口分布的不均衡性日益变大。表明该区域的经济发展与人口分布整体协调性较差。 (3)研究区人口与经济重心在大的趋势上存在耦合关系；人口和经济地理集中度分别呈现西高东低与北高南低,均围绕经济区中心城市聚集；人口主要聚集在喀什地区,经济则集聚在巴州地区,交通区位条件对人口和经济的集聚效应明显；根据耦合指数,塔里木河流域可划分为经济极化型、经济超前型、协调发展型、经济滞后型和经济落后型五类区域。
[Abstract]:Regional differences in China have always been one of the hot issues concerned by scholars at home and abroad. In regional economics, there are many indicators of regional development balance and difference, and the spatial change of population and economy is an important part of regional difference research, and it is also the two main indicators to reflect regional difference. Under the condition of uniform market information equivalence, the result of regional coordinated development should be that the distribution of economy and population tends to be consistent in space, while the degree of separation of economic and population distribution reflects the disequilibrium of regional development. In recent years, with the implementation of the western development strategy, the Tarim River Basin, which is located in the northwest arid region of China, has become a hot topic in academic circles and policy-making departments. The Tarim River Basin has distinctive regional characteristics, special population composition and extremely fragile ecological environment. The coordination of population and economic development is related to the social stability and sustainable development of this region. In this paper, the spatial and temporal evolution and spatial coupling characteristics of population and economic gravity center in Tarim River Basin over the past 30 years are analyzed by means of regional barycenter model and geographical concentration degree, in order to reveal the population in this area. The characteristics and laws of economic development, the influence of industrial structure transformation on ecological environment, the regional population distribution and the coordination degree of regional economy. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) in the past 30 years (1980-2009), the GDP, cultivated land area and the three major industrial centers of gravity in the Tarim River Basin have shown a trend of moving from west to east, while the population center of gravity moved from east to west. The population center of gravity is negatively correlated with the secondary industry of GDP, and the third industry in longitude and latitude. In longitude direction, population is positively correlated with primary industry, and population and cultivated land area have passed significant test in longitude and latitude. (2) in the past 30 years, population distribution and GDP, primary industry have been closely related. The deviation degree of secondary industry, tertiary industry and cultivated land area is significantly increased, which indicates that the imbalance between population distribution and economic development is becoming more and more serious. The shift distance between the center of gravity of primary industry and population center of gravity is more complex, but there is still a large imbalance between them, and the imbalance between cultivated land area and population distribution is increasing. The results show that the overall coordination between economic development and population distribution in this region is poor. (3) the population and economic center of gravity in the study area are coupled on the large trend, the population and economic geographical concentration degree show the west high east low and the north high south low, respectively. The population is mainly concentrated in Kashi area, while the economy is concentrated in Bazhou area. The agglomeration effect of traffic location on population and economy is obvious; according to the coupling index, The Tarim River Basin can be divided into five types: economic polarization type, economic advance type, coordinated development type, economic lag type and economic backwardness type.
【学位授予单位】：新疆农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C922

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