基于协调发展的城乡人口迁移计量模型研究
发布时间：2018-10-13 15:39
【摘要】：本文站在城乡协调发展的视角对城乡迁移人口进行研究,意欲为揭示城乡人口迁移规律,推动城乡协调发展提出理论基础和政策依据。 本文首先通过分析城乡人口迁移与城乡协调发展的互动机理,提出构建城乡人口迁移与城乡协调发展的联立方程模型框架,模型包括了城乡人口迁移方程,城乡发展协调方程,城乡社会保障协调方程。通过深入分析城乡人口迁移的影响因素,从空间和时间角度分别用因子分析法筛选了城市发展因子、城市社会保障因子、农村发展因子和农村社会保障因子。空间角度对面板数据进行分析,发现城乡人口迁移在全国30个省(直辖市)范围内符合固定效应模型,城乡人口迁移受城市因子“拉力”作用与农村因子“推力”作用;时间角度对时间序列数据进行分析,并通过脉冲响应分析了各个因子对城乡人口迁移作用效果的滞后作用。 进一步对联立方程模型进行了实证分析,从空间角度分析的实证结果表明全国30个省(直辖市)城乡人口迁移量的增加对于农村的发展水平与农村社会保障水平的提高都有促进作用,全国的城乡发展水平是协调的,但是城乡社会保障水平不协调,从东中西部地区来看,东部地区城乡人口迁移量最小,城乡发展水平不协调,西部地区城乡人口迁移量最大,城乡发展水平是协调的,中部地区城乡迁移量居中,但是城乡发展最协调;东中西地区的城乡社会保障水平都不协调;从历史变动角度分析的实证结果表明城乡人口迁移量在改革开放之后的前十年受城市与农村因子的“推拉”较近十年明显,并且城乡的发展是协调的,但是协调程度有下降趋势,城乡的社会保障水平是不协调的,但是不协调程度在弱化。 本文将城乡人口迁移与城乡协调发展相联系并对其构造联立方程模型进行研究,具有一定的方法论创新性;对实证结果从空间和时间角度全面分析了城乡人口迁移与城乡协调发展的变动过程,为国家在考虑城乡协调发展的同时制定人口政策提供了理论依据,具有重大的实践意义。
[Abstract]:From the perspective of coordinated development of urban and rural areas, this paper studies the urban-rural migration population, in order to reveal the laws of urban-rural population migration and promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas to put forward the theoretical basis and policy basis. Firstly, by analyzing the interactive mechanism of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development, this paper puts forward a simultaneous equation model frame of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development. The model includes urban-rural population migration equation, urban-rural development coordination equation. Urban and rural social security coordination equation. Through in-depth analysis of the influencing factors of urban and rural population migration, the factors of urban development, urban social security, rural development and rural social security were screened from the perspective of spatial and temporal factors. Spatial analysis of panel data shows that urban and rural population migration in 30 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) in the scope of the fixed effect model, urban and rural migration by the urban factor "pull" role and rural factor "thrust" role; The time series data are analyzed from the time angle, and the lag effect of each factor on the migration of urban and rural population is analyzed by impulse response. Furthermore, the simultaneous equation model is empirically analyzed. The empirical results from a spatial perspective show that the increase of urban and rural population migration in 30 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) has a positive effect on both the rural development level and the rural social security level, and the level of urban and rural development in the whole country is coordinated. However, the level of urban and rural social security is not in harmony. From the point of view of the eastern, central and western regions, the amount of urban and rural population migration in the eastern region is the smallest, and the level of urban and rural development is not in harmony. The western region has the largest amount of urban-rural migration and the level of urban-rural development is coordinated. The urban and rural migration in the central region is in the middle, but the urban and rural development is the most coordinated, and the level of urban and rural social security is not coordinated in the east, west and west regions. From the perspective of historical changes, the empirical results show that the urban and rural population migration in the first ten years after the reform and opening up is more obvious than in the recent ten years by urban and rural factors, and the development of urban and rural areas is coordinated. However, the degree of coordination has a downward trend, urban and rural social security level is not coordinated, but the degree of uncoordination is weakening. In this paper, the relationship between urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development and the study of its simultaneous equation model have certain methodological innovation. From the perspective of space and time, this paper analyzes the changing process of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development, which provides a theoretical basis for the country to formulate population policy while considering the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, which has great practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2;F224
本文编号：2269134
[Abstract]:From the perspective of coordinated development of urban and rural areas, this paper studies the urban-rural migration population, in order to reveal the laws of urban-rural population migration and promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas to put forward the theoretical basis and policy basis. Firstly, by analyzing the interactive mechanism of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development, this paper puts forward a simultaneous equation model frame of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development. The model includes urban-rural population migration equation, urban-rural development coordination equation. Urban and rural social security coordination equation. Through in-depth analysis of the influencing factors of urban and rural population migration, the factors of urban development, urban social security, rural development and rural social security were screened from the perspective of spatial and temporal factors. Spatial analysis of panel data shows that urban and rural population migration in 30 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) in the scope of the fixed effect model, urban and rural migration by the urban factor "pull" role and rural factor "thrust" role; The time series data are analyzed from the time angle, and the lag effect of each factor on the migration of urban and rural population is analyzed by impulse response. Furthermore, the simultaneous equation model is empirically analyzed. The empirical results from a spatial perspective show that the increase of urban and rural population migration in 30 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) has a positive effect on both the rural development level and the rural social security level, and the level of urban and rural development in the whole country is coordinated. However, the level of urban and rural social security is not in harmony. From the point of view of the eastern, central and western regions, the amount of urban and rural population migration in the eastern region is the smallest, and the level of urban and rural development is not in harmony. The western region has the largest amount of urban-rural migration and the level of urban-rural development is coordinated. The urban and rural migration in the central region is in the middle, but the urban and rural development is the most coordinated, and the level of urban and rural social security is not coordinated in the east, west and west regions. From the perspective of historical changes, the empirical results show that the urban and rural population migration in the first ten years after the reform and opening up is more obvious than in the recent ten years by urban and rural factors, and the development of urban and rural areas is coordinated. However, the degree of coordination has a downward trend, urban and rural social security level is not coordinated, but the degree of uncoordination is weakening. In this paper, the relationship between urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development and the study of its simultaneous equation model have certain methodological innovation. From the perspective of space and time, this paper analyzes the changing process of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development, which provides a theoretical basis for the country to formulate population policy while considering the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, which has great practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C924.2;F224
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 刘美蓉;我国民族地区人口迁移模型构建及实证分析[D];中央民族大学;2013年
，本文编号：2269134
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