日本人口年龄结构对消费影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-17 11:25

【摘要】：消费一直以来都是经济学研究的重点,随着莫迪利安尼生命周期消费理论的产生,人口年龄结构成为影响消费的因素之一被学者予以重视。尤其是现在,随着世界老年人口占总人口比重不断提高,各国相继进入了老龄社会,人口年龄结构对消费的影响愈发突出。这篇文章以世界上老龄化程度最高的国家——日本作为研究对象,探究日本人口年龄结构的变动及其对消费水平和边际消费倾向的影响,这对于刚刚于2002年迈入老龄社会的中国而言具有重要的借鉴意义。这篇文章系统的梳理了各种消费理论,并结合已有的研究消费影响因素的文献,将影响消费的因素概括为经济因素、制度因素、人口因素和环境心理因素。在对消费理论进行梳理的基础上,这篇文章分别对日本人口年龄结构和消费的变动进行了定性分析,阐述了1944~2015年间日本人口数量和人口结构两个方面的变动特点,并对日本总消费支出、人均实际消费支出以及消费率的变动进行描述性说明,同时就人口年龄结构中各个指标与消费水平、消费率之间的关系进行初步预测。这篇文章使用1980~2015年间的日本人口年龄结构指标和消费指标构建向量自回归模型(VAR),运用脉冲响应函数的分析方法和方差分解分析法探究三阶段人口比重的变动对人均实际消费支出和消费率的影响方向和影响大小。研究表明,人口年龄结构的变动确实会对消费产生影响,少儿抚养比的提高会抑制人均实际消费支出的增长,而老年抚养比和劳动者比重的提高会促进人均消费支出的增长;少儿抚养比对消费率的影响存在不确定性,老年抚养比和劳动者比重对消费率分别产生正向与负向的影响。除消费自身的冲击之外,短期内影响人均实际消费支出的最主要的因素是人均实际GDP,长期内则是少儿抚养比。影响消费率最主要的因素自始至终一直是人均实际GDP。从长期看,相比于老年人口比重,少儿人口比重对消费有更大的影响。基于以上研究结果,这篇文章从经济政策制定、养老政策制定以及产业结构调整等角度,对中国应对并利用好老龄社会提出建议。
[Abstract]:Consumption has always been the focus of economic research. With the emergence of Modigliani's life-cycle consumption theory, the age structure of population has become one of the factors that affect consumption. Especially now, with the increasing proportion of the world's elderly population in the total population, countries have entered the aging society, the impact of population age structure on consumption is becoming more and more prominent. Taking Japan, the world's most aging country, as the research object, this paper explores the changes in the age structure of Japan's population and its impact on the level of consumption and marginal propensity to consume. This is of great significance to China, which has just stepped into an aging society in 2002. This article systematically combs all kinds of consumption theories, and combines the existing literature to study the influencing factors of consumption. The factors that affect consumption are summarized as economic factors, institutional factors, population factors and environmental psychological factors. On the basis of combing the consumption theory, this article has carried on the qualitative analysis to the Japanese population age structure and the consumption change separately, elaborated the Japanese population quantity and the population structure two aspects between 1944 and 2015 the change characteristic. The changes of total consumption expenditure per capita actual consumption expenditure and consumption rate in Japan are described and the relationship between each index of population age structure and consumption level and consumption rate is preliminarily forecasted. This paper uses the age structure index and consumption index of Japanese population from 1980 to 2015 to construct a vector autoregressive model (VAR), using impulse response function analysis method and variance decomposition analysis method to explore the change of population proportion in three stages. Real consumption expenditure and consumption rate of the impact of the direction and size of the impact. The study shows that the change of the age structure of the population does have an impact on the consumption, the increase of the children's dependency ratio will restrain the increase of the per capita actual consumption expenditure, while the increase of the old-age dependency ratio and the proportion of workers will promote the increase of the per capita consumption expenditure. The influence of child dependency ratio on consumption rate is uncertain, and the dependency ratio of old age and the proportion of workers have positive and negative effects on consumption rate, respectively. In addition to the impact of consumption itself, the most important factor that affects the actual consumption expenditure in the short term is that the actual GDP, per capita in the long run is the child dependency ratio. The most important factor affecting consumption rate has been real GDP. per capita from beginning to end. In the long term, compared with the proportion of the elderly, the proportion of children has a greater impact on consumption. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to make good use of the aging society in China from the angles of economic policy formulation, pension policy formulation and industrial structure adjustment.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.313;F131.3

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