人口转变背景下的世界生育模式研究
发布时间：2018-10-17 11:46
【摘要】：在前人对生育模式研究的基础上,作者提出用Logistic函数对世界各国的生育模式展开研究,构建了平均生育年龄,标准差,峰值生育年龄和峰值等指标。通过这些指标,重点考察了发达地区,发展中地区和最不发达地区近40年来生育模式的变动情况,发现发达地区生育年龄在不断推迟,发展中地区和最不发达地区生育年龄在提前,所有国家各分年龄生育率普遍降低,他们之间的差异在缩小。究其原因,发展中地区和最不发达地区的育龄妇女受到现代化等各种因素影响,生育观念发生变化,预计生育的孩子没有出生,所以平均生育年龄和峰值生育年龄提前。发达地区的育龄妇女受到各种现实因素的影响,自主选择推迟生育。进一步研究发现,生育模式转变是一条道路,发达地区走在前面,发展中地区和最不发达地区走在后面。总和生育率2.1为转折点,总和生育率大于2.1的国家和地区,峰值生育年龄和平均生育年龄不断提前,总和生育率小于2.1的国家和地区,峰值生育年龄和平均生育年龄不断推迟。即低生育率国家,普遍发生的生育模式转变是生育推迟。低生育率国家也可以分为两种类型,一种是总和生育率变化较小的国家,如瑞典,它生育推迟的发生是因为补偿性生育,20—28岁分年龄生育率快速下降,29岁之后的分年龄生育率却在回升；另外一种是总和生育率一直快速下降的国家,如日本,它生育推迟的发生是因为分年龄生育率下降幅度不一致,即20—26岁的分年龄生育率下降的比其他年龄快。低生育率国家的生育推迟并不会无限推迟下去,在科学技术不发生革命性的变化,人类的预期寿命不发生大幅度的提高的情况下,结合欧洲的一些调查,作者认为峰值生育年龄推迟的极限在30岁左右,平均生育年龄的极限在35岁左右。 文章的最后,作者通过对已有生育理论的梳理,提出了生育推迟现象的系统性解释。工业化、现代化、城市化作为这个时代的背景,是生育模式转变的最重要原因,经济、教育、社会价值、人口流动、法律政策和自然环境变化等制度性因素是生育模式转变的最主要原因,他们通过中介变量：初婚年龄、生育能力、避孕措施、人工流引产对生育模式转变产生直接影响。笔者随后用联合国的数据对这一理论检验,发现结果与理论吻合的比较好,受制于数据,许多指标无法操作化,尽管如此,回归方程的调整后R2高达0.68,解释力非常好。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the previous researches on fertility model, the author proposes to use the Logistic function to study the fertility model in various countries in the world, and construct the index of average reproductive age, standard deviation, peak reproductive age and peak value. Through these indicators, the changes in fertility patterns in developed, developing and least developed regions over the past 40 years have been examined, and it has been found that the reproductive age in developed regions is being continuously delayed. The age of childbearing in the developing and least developed regions is advancing, and the differences between them are narrowing as age-specific fertility rates generally decrease in all countries. The reason is that women of childbearing age in developing and least developed areas are affected by various factors such as modernization and so on. The concept of childbearing is changed and the children who are expected to have children are not born, so the average age of childbearing and the age of peak birth are advanced. Women of childbearing age in developed areas are influenced by various realistic factors and choose to delay childbearing. Further study shows that fertility pattern transformation is a road, developed regions are ahead, developing regions and least developed regions are behind. The total fertility rate 2.1 is the turning point. In the countries and regions with total fertility rate greater than 2.1, the peak reproductive age and the average reproductive age are advanced continuously, and the peak fertility age and the average childbearing age of the countries and regions with the total fertility rate less than 2.1 are continuously delayed. That is, low-fertility countries, the common fertility pattern change is fertility delay. Low-fertility countries can also be divided into two types: countries with small changes in the total fertility rate, such as Sweden, The delay in fertility is due to compensatory fertility, which has declined rapidly between the ages of 20 and 28, but has rebounded since age 29; another is in countries such as Japan, where the total fertility rate has been declining rapidly. The delay in fertility is due to inconsistent declines in the age-specific fertility rate, meaning that the age-specific fertility rate between the ages of 20 and 26 falls faster than the rest of the population. The delay in fertility in low-fertility countries will not be indefinitely delayed, without a revolutionary change in science and technology and a significant increase in human life expectancy, in conjunction with some surveys in Europe. The authors think that the limit of peak fertility is about 30 years old, and the average age is about 35 years old. Finally, by combing the existing fertility theory, the author puts forward a systematic explanation of the phenomenon of fertility delay. Industrialization, modernization, and urbanization, as the background of this era, are the most important reasons for the transformation of the fertility model: economy, education, social value, population mobility, Institutional factors, such as legal policy and natural environment change, are the main reasons for the change of fertility model. They have a direct impact on the transformation of fertility model through intermediary variables: age of first marriage, fertility, contraceptive measures and induced labor induced by artificial abortion. The author then tests the theory with the data of the United Nations and finds that the results are in good agreement with the theory and are restricted by the data and many indexes can not be operated. However, the adjusted R2 of the regression equation is as high as 0.68, and the explanatory power is very good.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.21
本文编号：2276555
[Abstract]:On the basis of the previous researches on fertility model, the author proposes to use the Logistic function to study the fertility model in various countries in the world, and construct the index of average reproductive age, standard deviation, peak reproductive age and peak value. Through these indicators, the changes in fertility patterns in developed, developing and least developed regions over the past 40 years have been examined, and it has been found that the reproductive age in developed regions is being continuously delayed. The age of childbearing in the developing and least developed regions is advancing, and the differences between them are narrowing as age-specific fertility rates generally decrease in all countries. The reason is that women of childbearing age in developing and least developed areas are affected by various factors such as modernization and so on. The concept of childbearing is changed and the children who are expected to have children are not born, so the average age of childbearing and the age of peak birth are advanced. Women of childbearing age in developed areas are influenced by various realistic factors and choose to delay childbearing. Further study shows that fertility pattern transformation is a road, developed regions are ahead, developing regions and least developed regions are behind. The total fertility rate 2.1 is the turning point. In the countries and regions with total fertility rate greater than 2.1, the peak reproductive age and the average reproductive age are advanced continuously, and the peak fertility age and the average childbearing age of the countries and regions with the total fertility rate less than 2.1 are continuously delayed. That is, low-fertility countries, the common fertility pattern change is fertility delay. Low-fertility countries can also be divided into two types: countries with small changes in the total fertility rate, such as Sweden, The delay in fertility is due to compensatory fertility, which has declined rapidly between the ages of 20 and 28, but has rebounded since age 29; another is in countries such as Japan, where the total fertility rate has been declining rapidly. The delay in fertility is due to inconsistent declines in the age-specific fertility rate, meaning that the age-specific fertility rate between the ages of 20 and 26 falls faster than the rest of the population. The delay in fertility in low-fertility countries will not be indefinitely delayed, without a revolutionary change in science and technology and a significant increase in human life expectancy, in conjunction with some surveys in Europe. The authors think that the limit of peak fertility is about 30 years old, and the average age is about 35 years old. Finally, by combing the existing fertility theory, the author puts forward a systematic explanation of the phenomenon of fertility delay. Industrialization, modernization, and urbanization, as the background of this era, are the most important reasons for the transformation of the fertility model: economy, education, social value, population mobility, Institutional factors, such as legal policy and natural environment change, are the main reasons for the change of fertility model. They have a direct impact on the transformation of fertility model through intermediary variables: age of first marriage, fertility, contraceptive measures and induced labor induced by artificial abortion. The author then tests the theory with the data of the United Nations and finds that the results are in good agreement with the theory and are restricted by the data and many indexes can not be operated. However, the adjusted R2 of the regression equation is as high as 0.68, and the explanatory power is very good.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C924.21
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