黑河流域人口承载力预测分析研究
发布时间：2018-10-20 07:14
【摘要】： 黑河流域是我国西北地区第二大内陆河流域,是西部地区重要的商品粮、蔬菜和制种基地,流域战略地位十分重要。近年来,由于人类活动的频繁,流域内生态退化,水资源锐减。且由于长期以来忽视了黑河流域内的人口与资源关系的研究,单纯追求经济的发展,使流域生产力下降,资源环境恶化,生产成本增加,经济走入困境。由于区域人口承载问题是流域可持续发展的关键问题之一,因此本文选择黑河流域人口承载力预测分析作为本文的主要研究内容。 论文首先回顾了人口承载力理论研究的发展过程,在此基础上建立包括系统分析、系统动力学建模、预测结果及评价和建立预警指标四部分的复合模型,并将其应用与黑河流域所在的十个县(区、旗)。 在第五章中,本文将黑河流域看作一个复合巨系统,在综合考虑巨系统中有关经济、社会、资源、生态环境等重要因素的基础上,建立黑河流域人口承载力的复合模型。通过对黑河流域复合系统进行系统分析,根据实际情况,将复合系统分解为土地资源、水资源、经济、人口和生态环境五个子系统。之后分析各个子系统及与其他子系统的因果关系,并分别进行模型的构建、绘制模拟结构图。然后,将初始值输入所建模型中并上机运行,得到黑河流域人口承载力的具体模拟数据。经过对仿真结果的检验,证明模拟数据能客观反映各区域的实际情况后,建立黑河流域人口承载力预警指标体系,分析影响黑河流域人口承载力的主要因素。 对仿真模拟结果的分析表明,黑河流域人口总体处于超载状况,流域内承载力状况不佳的原因主要在于不发达区域的发展模式与协调发展的要求还有一定距离,根据对黑河流域未来五十年人口承载力的预测发现,流域内的承载状况将不断提高但人口的增长仍将导致流域内人口出现超载现象。人口承载力直接影响到一个区域的社会经济发展的协调性,论文对黑河流域如何才能协调提出了政策建议,最后论文对人口承载力进一步研究作出展望。
[Abstract]:The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China, and is an important commodity grain, vegetable and seed production base in the western region. The strategic position of the basin is very important. In recent years, due to the frequent human activities, ecological degradation in the basin, water resources decreased sharply. For a long time, the study of the relationship between population and resources in the Heihe River Basin has been neglected, and the economic development has been pursued simply, which has led to the decline of productivity, the deterioration of resources and environment, the increase of production cost and the difficult situation of the economy. As the regional population carrying capacity is one of the key problems in the sustainable development of the river basin, this paper chooses the forecast analysis of the Heihe river basin population carrying capacity as the main research content of this paper. Firstly, the paper reviews the development process of the theory of population carrying capacity, and then establishes a composite model including system analysis, system dynamics modeling, prediction results and evaluation and establishment of early warning index. And it is applied to the ten counties (districts, banners) in which the Heihe River Basin is located. In the fifth chapter, the Heihe River Basin is regarded as a complex giant system. On the basis of considering the important factors of economy, society, resources, ecological environment and so on, a composite model of population carrying capacity of Heihe River Basin is established. Based on the systematic analysis of Heihe River Basin complex system, the composite system is decomposed into five subsystems: land resources, water resources, economy, population and ecological environment. Then, the causality between each subsystem and other subsystems is analyzed, and the model is constructed, and the simulation structure is drawn. Then, the initial values are input into the model and run on the computer to obtain the specific simulation data of the population carrying capacity of the Heihe River Basin. After the test of the simulation results, it is proved that the simulated data can objectively reflect the actual situation of each region, and the early warning index system of the population carrying capacity of the Heihe River Basin is established, and the main factors affecting the population carrying capacity of the Heihe River Basin are analyzed. The analysis of simulation results shows that the population of Heihe River Basin is overloaded, and the main reason for the poor carrying capacity in the basin is that there is still a certain distance between the development mode of the undeveloped region and the requirement of coordinated development. According to the prediction of population carrying capacity in the next 50 years in Heihe River Basin, it is found that the carrying capacity of the basin will be improved continuously, but the population growth will still lead to the overloading of population in the basin. The population carrying capacity directly affects the coordination of the social and economic development of a region. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to coordinate the Heihe River Basin. Finally, the paper looks forward to the further study of the population carrying capacity.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2
本文编号：2282436
[Abstract]:The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China, and is an important commodity grain, vegetable and seed production base in the western region. The strategic position of the basin is very important. In recent years, due to the frequent human activities, ecological degradation in the basin, water resources decreased sharply. For a long time, the study of the relationship between population and resources in the Heihe River Basin has been neglected, and the economic development has been pursued simply, which has led to the decline of productivity, the deterioration of resources and environment, the increase of production cost and the difficult situation of the economy. As the regional population carrying capacity is one of the key problems in the sustainable development of the river basin, this paper chooses the forecast analysis of the Heihe river basin population carrying capacity as the main research content of this paper. Firstly, the paper reviews the development process of the theory of population carrying capacity, and then establishes a composite model including system analysis, system dynamics modeling, prediction results and evaluation and establishment of early warning index. And it is applied to the ten counties (districts, banners) in which the Heihe River Basin is located. In the fifth chapter, the Heihe River Basin is regarded as a complex giant system. On the basis of considering the important factors of economy, society, resources, ecological environment and so on, a composite model of population carrying capacity of Heihe River Basin is established. Based on the systematic analysis of Heihe River Basin complex system, the composite system is decomposed into five subsystems: land resources, water resources, economy, population and ecological environment. Then, the causality between each subsystem and other subsystems is analyzed, and the model is constructed, and the simulation structure is drawn. Then, the initial values are input into the model and run on the computer to obtain the specific simulation data of the population carrying capacity of the Heihe River Basin. After the test of the simulation results, it is proved that the simulated data can objectively reflect the actual situation of each region, and the early warning index system of the population carrying capacity of the Heihe River Basin is established, and the main factors affecting the population carrying capacity of the Heihe River Basin are analyzed. The analysis of simulation results shows that the population of Heihe River Basin is overloaded, and the main reason for the poor carrying capacity in the basin is that there is still a certain distance between the development mode of the undeveloped region and the requirement of coordinated development. According to the prediction of population carrying capacity in the next 50 years in Heihe River Basin, it is found that the carrying capacity of the basin will be improved continuously, but the population growth will still lead to the overloading of population in the basin. The population carrying capacity directly affects the coordination of the social and economic development of a region. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to coordinate the Heihe River Basin. Finally, the paper looks forward to the further study of the population carrying capacity.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2010
【分类号】：C924.2
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 俞高;金明;;宜宾市经济承载力研究[J];经济研究导刊;2013年07期
2 里昕;柴剑峰;;主体功能区人口承载能力研究[J];西北人口;2012年01期
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 车腾腾;戈壁信息遥感提取方法对比分析[D];中国林业科学研究院;2012年
，本文编号：2282436
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/shekelunwen/renkou/2282436.html
