昌吉州水资源人口承载力及人口增量空间分布研究

发布时间：2018-10-22 14:58

【摘要】：研究选取地理位置优越且具有良好的发展条件的新疆维吾尔自治区昌吉回族自治州(以下简称昌吉州)作为研究区,围绕其水资源人口承载力和人口增量的空间分布开展分析研究,有利于促进西部地区的人口增长并为我国从东到西的人口重新分布提供科学支撑。论文构建了水资源人口承载力计算模型、人均需水量预测模型和人居环境适宜性评价模型,得到了昌吉州的人口承载力和人口增量,提取了人居适宜空间,对昌吉州进行人口承载空间可视化评估与分析,研究了昌吉州研究人口增量的空间分布优化配置可能。主要得出以下结论:昌吉州近年来供水能力逐年增强,为昌吉州的发展提供了有利条件。昌吉州第一产业的节水空间巨大,在昌吉州的现状经济社会发展水平和世界农业节水技术水平下,其水资源人口承载力约为205.14万人,人口增量为63.88万人。交通和水资源是影响昌吉州人口空间分布的主要因素。昌吉州整体人居适宜性指数在6.8~86.7之间,平均值为33.9,人居适宜性指数整体偏低。全州人居适宜空间的总面积为15839 km2,各县市的适宜性指数西高东低,由大到小排序为玛纳斯县、呼图壁县、奇台县、阜康市、昌吉市、吉木萨尔县、木垒哈萨克自治县。其中,玛纳斯县人口增长潜力最大,呼图壁县次之,阜康市、吉木萨尔县和奇台县潜力大致相同,昌吉市和木垒县人口数量可增长量为负值,表明它们的人口数量已经超载,并且昌吉市环境压力最大。
[Abstract]:The study selected the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred to as Changji Prefecture) as the research area. The analysis and research on the spatial distribution of water resources population carrying capacity and population increment will help to promote the population growth in the western region and provide scientific support for the population redistribution from east to west in China. In this paper, the calculation model of population carrying capacity of water resources, the forecast model of water demand per capita and the suitability evaluation model of human settlement environment are constructed, and the population carrying capacity and population increment of Changji Prefecture are obtained, and the suitable space for human settlement is extracted. The spatial visualization evaluation and analysis of population carrying capacity were carried out in Changji Prefecture, and the possibility of optimizing spatial distribution of population increment in Changji Prefecture was studied. The main conclusions are as follows: in recent years, the capacity of water supply in Changji Prefecture has increased year by year, which provides favorable conditions for the development of Changji Prefecture. The water saving space of the primary industry in Changji Prefecture is huge. Under the present economic and social development level of Changji Prefecture and the level of world agricultural water-saving technology, the population carrying capacity of water resources is about 2.0514 million people and the population increment is 638800 people. Traffic and water resources are the main factors influencing the spatial distribution of population in Changji Prefecture. The overall habitat suitability index in Changji Prefecture was between 6.8 and 86.7, with an average of 33.9, and the overall habitat suitability index was low. The total area of the suitable space for human settlement in the whole state is 15839 km2, the suitability index of each county is high and low, and the order from big to small is Manas County, Hutubi County, Qitai County, Fukang City, Changji City, Jimusar County and Mulei Kazak Autonomous County. Among them, Manas County has the greatest population growth potential, Hutubi County is second, Fukang City, Jimusar County and Qitai County have roughly the same potential, and Changji City and Mulei County can have negative population growth, indicating that their population numbers have been overloaded. And Changji City environmental pressure is the greatest.
【学位授予单位】：华北理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C922

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