江苏省流动人口空间分布特征及其与经济发展关系研究

发布时间：2018-10-25 09:26

【摘要】：,改革开放以来,随着区域联系的加深,人口流动已成为一种社会常态。流动人口一方面推动着我国社会经济的发展和城市化的进程,另一方面也对我国区域发展规划、政府社会管理和公共服务提供重要的支撑。江苏省也发生了翻天覆地的变化,经济发展位居全国前列,而且在经济发展的吸引下,流动人口的数量和规模也引人注目,日益呈现出新的发展趋势。为了更好地促进江苏省经济—人口协调发展,很有必要深入研究两者之间的关系。本文以江苏省县域为研究单元,基于第五和第六次人口普查中的省内和跨省流动人口数据,首先用空间统计方法,研究流动人口不同群体的空间分布差异,结果表明:(1)省内和省外流动人口在人口学和社会经济特征方面既具有相似性又存在显著差异。(2)省外和省内流动人口空间分布渐趋集中化,但省内流动人口空间不均衡性较弱。从区域角度看,三大区域内部的差异是影响省内流动人口空间分布差异的主要原因,而地区间的差异是引起省外流动人口空间分布差异的主要原因。从重心迁移角度看,省外流动人口与省内流动人口在这十年间均向东南方向偏移,但偏移的距离和速度有所差异。(3)十年间省外流动人口的集聚程度远高于省内流动人口;省内流动人口的热点区始终广泛分布在苏南地区,冷点区域始终分布在苏中苏北地区,一直呈现南高北低的趋势,而省外流动人口冷热点地区总体上按照西北-东南格局层级分布。变差函数分析结果也表明这十年间省外流动人口的空间差异在不断增大,在南京、镇江、常州等地的集聚程度低于苏锡地区,而省内流动人口的空间差异性逐渐缩小,均衡化态势明显。其次,从经济水平、经济结构、经济外向性、经济社会保障、收入消费水平、城镇化水平以及就业情况等几个方面选取经济发展指标,运用因子分析法和流动人口生产函数模型来探讨经济发展与流动人口之间的关系。结果表明:(1)社会保障和经济外向性发展水平对省内流动人口的作用强度更大,省外流动人口则主要取决于经济发展水平因子;(2)从人力资本角度分析,流动人力资本对江苏省经济总产出的贡献率最大,且省内流动人力资本的贡献度更大。最后从产业结构调整、户籍改革、人才管理、制度建设等方面提出推动流动人口-经济协调发展的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the deepening of regional ties, population mobility has become a social norm. On the one hand, floating population promotes the development of social economy and urbanization in China, on the other hand, it also provides important support for regional development planning, government social management and public service. Jiangsu Province has also undergone earth-shaking changes, economic development ranks first in the country, and under the attraction of economic development, the number and scale of floating population are also attracting attention, showing a new trend of development day by day. In order to promote the coordinated development of economy and population in Jiangsu Province, it is necessary to study the relationship between them. This paper takes the county area of Jiangsu Province as the research unit, based on the fifth and sixth census data of the floating population in the province and across provinces. Firstly, using the spatial statistical method to study the spatial distribution differences of different groups of floating population. The results show that: (1) there are similarities and significant differences in demography and socio-economic characteristics between the floating population within and outside the province. (2) the spatial distribution of the floating population in the province and in the province tends to be centralized, but the spatial imbalance of the floating population in the province is relatively weak. From the regional point of view, the difference within the three regions is the main reason that affects the spatial distribution of floating population in the province, and the difference between regions is the main reason for the spatial distribution difference of the floating population outside the province. From the point of view of center of gravity migration, both the floating population outside the province and the floating population in the province have shifted to the southeast in the past decade, but the distance and speed of the migration are different. (3) the concentration degree of the floating population outside the province is much higher than that of the floating population in the province in the past ten years. The hot spots of the floating population in the province have always been widely distributed in southern Jiangsu, and the cold spots have always been distributed in the central and northern parts of Jiangsu, showing a trend of high to north and low in the south. The cold hot spots of floating population outside the province are distributed according to the level of northwest-southeast pattern. The result of variation function analysis also shows that the spatial difference of floating population outside the province is increasing continuously in the past decade. The concentration degree of floating population in Nanjing, Zhenjiang and Changzhou is lower than that in Suxi area, while the spatial difference of floating population in the province is gradually decreasing. The equalization situation is obvious. Secondly, select economic development indicators from the aspects of economic level, economic structure, economic extroversion, economic and social security, income and consumption level, urbanization level and employment situation, etc. The relationship between economic development and floating population is discussed by using factor analysis and production function model of floating population. The results show that: (1) Social security and the level of economic outward development play a greater role in the floating population in the province, while the floating population outside the province mainly depends on the level of economic development; (2) from the point of view of human capital, The contribution rate of floating human capital to the total economic output of Jiangsu Province is the largest, and the contribution of floating human capital in the province is even greater. Finally, the suggestions of promoting the coordinated development of floating population and economy are put forward from the aspects of industrial structure adjustment, household registration reform, talent management, system construction and so on.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

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