家庭观念、人口负担比与居民消费——基于2002-2014年山东省面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-10-31 18:27

【摘要】：本文将"婚姻家庭继承类纠纷民事诉讼率"作为一个重要的家庭观念代理变量,具体而言,设定一个地区"人均婚姻家庭继承类纠纷的一审收案数"测度该地区平均意义上"家文化"影响的强度。实证分析部分采用2002 2014年山东省17地市的面板数据,具体考察分析人口负担比对储蓄——消费影响关系中家庭观念的作用,研究结果表明人口年龄结构变量(少儿人口负担比、老年人口负担比以及总人口负担比)与居民消费率呈正相关关系,即满足生命周期假说,也与大量的已有实证研究结论相一致;人口年龄结构变量与婚姻家庭继承类民事纠纷诉讼率的交互项负向影响居民消费率,即更高的民事诉讼率表征更低的家庭情感紧密度、更低的家庭重要性认知,造成了对家庭中老年人和少儿的消费满足降低,并且,从显著性和估计系数来看,对少儿的影响要大于对老年人的影响。
[Abstract]:This paper regards "civil litigation rate of matrimonial and family inheritance disputes" as an important agent variable of family concept, specifically speaking, Setting up a region "the number of cases in the first instance of the per capita marital and family inheritance disputes" measures the intensity of the influence of "family culture" in the average sense of the region. The empirical analysis part uses the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province in 2002 and 2014 to investigate and analyze the effect of the population burden ratio on the impact of saving and consumption. The results show that the population age structure variable (the ratio of the children's population to the burden). The elderly population burden ratio and the total population burden ratio) are positively correlated with the consumption rate, that is, satisfying the life cycle hypothesis, and also consistent with a large number of empirical research conclusions; The interaction between the population age structure variable and the civil dispute litigation rate of marriage and family inheritance negatively affects the consumption rate, that is, the higher civil litigation rate represents the lower family emotional compactness and the lower family importance cognition. As a result, the consumption satisfaction of the elderly and the children in the family is reduced, and the influence on the children is greater than that on the elderly in terms of significance and estimation coefficient.
【作者单位】：山东大学经济研究院;山东财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“中国居民消费特征的理论和实证分析”(11CJL016) 山东大学自主创新基金青年团队项目“非正规制度变迁与中国居民消费储蓄的理论和实证分析”(IFYT12093)
【分类号】：C913;C924.24;F126.1

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