我国人口红利的经济增长效应研究
发布时间：2018-11-03 16:30
【摘要】：自从马尔萨斯发表其著作《人口原理》以来,人口总量与经济发展的关系始终是经济学家争论的焦点。然而自20世纪60年代开始,众多发展中国家同时经历了迅速的经济增长与人口转变,因此由人口转变产生的劳动年龄人口比重大的年龄结构与经济增长的关系便逐渐成为新的研究热点。理论上讲,这样的人口年龄结构有助于经济增长：劳动力供给充足,总储蓄水平高；遂称其为“人口红利”。新中国成立以来,我国经历了迅速的人口转变并形成了人口红利,因此分析我国的人口红利特征和经济增长效应,有利于我国目前进一步利用人口红利发展经济,并在人口红利消失后实现经济的可持续发展。 本文将分析我国人口红利对于经济增长的促进作用,并且从人口红利的地区差异特性与人口红利的度量指标两个方面扩展了同类研究。首先本文对人口红利产生的社会经济背景：变化的社会人口年龄结构与快速的经济发展进行分析,接着介绍了人口红利的定义、度量、特征以及变化趋势,力图全方位阐明人口红利,再往下,本文采用增长回归模型,利用我国分省的面板数据实证分析人口红利的经济增长效应,回归结果显示理论人口红利高估了实际人口红利,两者之差反映了我国劳动参与率的提高对于经济增长的产生阻碍,这个反常结论从一个侧面反映了我国人口红利的不充分利用情况。接下来,本文对人口红利促进经济增长的条件、传导机制进行阐述。最后,对后人口红利时期的经济发展做出展望,并提出实现充分就业以利用人口红利的政策意见。
[Abstract]:Since Malthus published his book the principle of population, the relationship between population and economic development has always been the focus of debate among economists. However, since the 1960s, many developing countries have experienced both rapid economic growth and population transition. Therefore, the relationship between the age structure of the working-age population and economic growth has gradually become a new research hotspot. In theory, such a demographic age structure is conducive to economic growth: an adequate supply of labour and high levels of total savings; it is called a "demographic dividend." Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China has experienced a rapid demographic transformation and formed a demographic dividend. Therefore, analyzing the characteristics of the demographic dividend and the economic growth effect of our country is conducive to the further utilization of the demographic dividend for the development of our economy. And in the population dividend disappeared to achieve sustainable economic development. This paper will analyze the role of demographic dividend in promoting economic growth in China, and expand the similar research from the characteristics of regional difference of demographic dividend and the measurement index of demographic dividend. First of all, this paper analyzes the socio-economic background of demographic dividend: changing socio-demographic age structure and rapid economic development, and then introduces the definition, measurement, characteristics and trends of demographic dividend. This paper uses the growth regression model to analyze the economic growth effect of the population dividend by using the panel data of the provinces in China. The regression results show that the theoretical demographic dividend overestimates the real population dividend. The difference between the two reflects the hindrance of the economic growth caused by the increase of the labor force participation rate in China. This abnormal conclusion reflects the underutilization of the population dividend in China from one aspect. Next, this paper expounds the conditions and transmission mechanism of demographic dividend to promote economic growth. Finally, the economic development in the post-demographic dividend period is prospected, and the policy of realizing full employment to make use of the demographic dividend is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F124.1;C924.2
本文编号：2308320
[Abstract]:Since Malthus published his book the principle of population, the relationship between population and economic development has always been the focus of debate among economists. However, since the 1960s, many developing countries have experienced both rapid economic growth and population transition. Therefore, the relationship between the age structure of the working-age population and economic growth has gradually become a new research hotspot. In theory, such a demographic age structure is conducive to economic growth: an adequate supply of labour and high levels of total savings; it is called a "demographic dividend." Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China has experienced a rapid demographic transformation and formed a demographic dividend. Therefore, analyzing the characteristics of the demographic dividend and the economic growth effect of our country is conducive to the further utilization of the demographic dividend for the development of our economy. And in the population dividend disappeared to achieve sustainable economic development. This paper will analyze the role of demographic dividend in promoting economic growth in China, and expand the similar research from the characteristics of regional difference of demographic dividend and the measurement index of demographic dividend. First of all, this paper analyzes the socio-economic background of demographic dividend: changing socio-demographic age structure and rapid economic development, and then introduces the definition, measurement, characteristics and trends of demographic dividend. This paper uses the growth regression model to analyze the economic growth effect of the population dividend by using the panel data of the provinces in China. The regression results show that the theoretical demographic dividend overestimates the real population dividend. The difference between the two reflects the hindrance of the economic growth caused by the increase of the labor force participation rate in China. This abnormal conclusion reflects the underutilization of the population dividend in China from one aspect. Next, this paper expounds the conditions and transmission mechanism of demographic dividend to promote economic growth. Finally, the economic development in the post-demographic dividend period is prospected, and the policy of realizing full employment to make use of the demographic dividend is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F124.1;C924.2
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