天津市人口发展趋势预测

发布时间：2018-11-05 10:44

【摘要】：人口作为经济社会可持续发展的重要载体，它的变迁足以带动整个社会的变迁。一方面，人口为经济发展提供了充足的劳动力资源，并在科技、体育事业等多个领域发挥出人才优势；另一方面，不合理的人口发展造成了环境、资源以及社会领域公共服务的“拥挤”和超负荷，并逐渐影响着人们的生活质量，禁锢着社会长远发展的步伐。自滨海新区开发开放以来，天津市迎来了战略发展的新时期。科学预测天津市未来人口发展的规律，对于天津人口政策的制定和经济社会宏观的规划有着重要的参考价值。本文运用文献法追溯天津人口形成和发展的过程，并根据人口普查资料和天津统计年鉴，从人口的规模、结构、质量和经济就业四个方面重点分析现阶段天津人口发展的状况，展现天津人口发展的脉络和阶段性特征，探讨影响人口发展的生育决策因素和经济及其他因素，在此基础上确立合理的人口参数并通过CPPS软件来预测未来五十年天津常住人口发展的趋势。研究认为当前天津人口发展蕴含的机遇包括外来人口积累的人力资源、现阶段人口红利带来的经济优势、人口素质提升和城市化等，未来人口的发展面临的挑战包括人口增长与经济发展协调问题、人口结构不均衡特别是劳动力短缺和小规模家庭抗风险能力低等，最后立足天津城市的发展从人口政策、经济发展和布局、劳动力积累、应对老龄化和纠正性别失调等层面提出相应的措施与建议。
[Abstract]:Population as an important carrier of sustainable economic and social development, its changes are enough to drive the changes of the whole society. On the one hand, the population provides sufficient labor resources for economic development, and in science and technology, sports and other fields to play a talent advantage; On the other hand, unreasonable population development causes the "crowded" and overload of the environment, resources and public services in the social field, and gradually affects the quality of life of people and restricts the pace of the long-term development of society. Since the development and opening of Binhai New area, Tianjin has ushered in a new period of strategic development. Scientific prediction of the future population development of Tianjin has important reference value for the formulation of population policy and the macro-planning of economy and society in Tianjin. This paper uses the literature method to trace back the process of population formation and development in Tianjin, and according to the census data and the statistical yearbook of Tianjin, analyzes the current situation of population development in Tianjin from four aspects of population scale, structure, quality and economic employment. To show the context and stage characteristics of Tianjin's population development, and to explore the reproductive decision-making factors and economic and other factors that affect the population development, On this basis, reasonable population parameters are established and the trend of Tianjin resident population development in the next 50 years is predicted by CPPS software. It is believed that the opportunities for population development in Tianjin at present include the human resources accumulated by the foreign population, the economic advantages brought about by the demographic dividend at the present stage, the upgrading of the population quality and the urbanization, and so on. The challenges facing future population development include the coordination between population growth and economic development, the imbalance of population structure, especially the shortage of labor force and the low ability of small families to resist risks, etc. Finally, the development of Tianjin is based on population policy. The economic development and distribution, the accumulation of labor force, the ageing and the correction of gender imbalance should be put forward with corresponding measures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：C924.24

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