人口年龄结构对消费率的影响研究
发布时间：2018-11-10 06:48
【摘要】：本文在OLG模型的基础上,引入预期,同时考虑中国居民的遗产动机,建立了劳动收入为“幼稚预期”和“理性预期”的三期迭代模型,在理论上分析人口结构对消费的影响,得到如下结论：居民消费率与少儿抚养系数成正比,居民消费率与老年抚养系数成正比,居民消费率与收入增长率成正比。 然后,通过收集1995-2009年城镇、农村居民的省级面板数据,建立分区域(东部、中部、西部)、分城乡(城镇、农村)的固定面板数据模型,并比较各种估计方法(No weights, Cross section weights, Cross section SUR)的实证结果。 在东部、中部、西部分样本农村居民消费模型中,居民收入增长率对农村居民消费率均有正向影响,且在1%的显著性水平下通过显著性检验。少儿抚养比对农村居民消费率有正的影响,且在1%的显著性水平有效。但是,老年抚养比对农村居民消费率只有在西部分样本模型中存在负影响。究其原因,中东部农村的人口老龄化进程较西部农村的要快,因此西部农村居民的年轻人比例较大,预防性储蓄动机强,相应的对居民消费率的抑制作用较大。 在东部、中部分样本城镇居民消费模型中,居民收入增长率对城镇居民消费率没有显著影响。这也正好解释了中国长期存在的“高增长、高储蓄”现象。城市少儿抚养比对城镇居民消费率有正的影响,并且在1%的显著性水平有效。镇少儿抚养比对城镇居民消费率有正的影响,并且在10%的显著性水平有效。城市老年抚养比对城镇居民消费率有显著的负影响,镇老年抚养比对城镇居民消费率有负影响(西部样本不显著)。究其原因,东部城镇地区遗赠动机最强烈,中部次之,西部最弱。人口老龄化对消费率的抑制作用在东部城镇地区最为明显。 为了有效的提高我国各地区居民的消费率,应当降低东、中、西部地区居民收入差距和城乡居民收入差距,加快社会保障制度改革,以有效的降低未来收入的不确定性,减弱居民的预防性储蓄动机。征收遗产税作为调节财富分配的经济手段,可调高遗产税的起征点,或者开征累进遗产税。另外,考虑适当的放松计划生育政策,提高少儿抚养比,从而增加居民消费率。
[Abstract]:On the basis of OLG model, this paper introduces expectation and takes into account the inheritance motivation of Chinese residents, establishes a three-stage iterative model of labor income as "childish expectation" and "rational expectation", and theoretically analyzes the effect of population structure on consumption. The conclusions are as follows: the consumption rate is proportional to the child raising coefficient, the resident consumption rate is proportional to the old age dependency coefficient, and the resident consumption rate is directly proportional to the income growth rate. Then, by collecting the provincial panel data of urban and rural residents from 1995 to 2009, the fixed panel data model of sub-region (east, middle, west) and urban and rural areas (town and countryside) is established, and various estimation methods (No weights, are compared. The empirical results of Cross section weights, Cross section SUR). In the consumption model of rural residents in the eastern, central and western parts of the sample, the growth rate of residents' income has a positive effect on the consumption rate of rural residents, and has passed the significance test at the level of 1% significance. The ratio of children to children has a positive effect on the consumption rate of rural residents, and is effective at the level of 1%. However, the elderly dependency ratio has a negative effect on the consumption rate of rural residents only in the western part of the sample model. The reason is that the aging process of the rural population in the central and eastern rural areas is faster than that in the western rural areas, so the proportion of young people living in the western rural areas is larger, the motivation of preventive savings is strong, and the corresponding inhibition to the consumption rate of residents is greater. In the eastern part of the sample consumption model of urban residents, the growth rate of residents' income has no significant effect on the consumption rate of urban residents. This explains China's long-standing phenomenon of high growth and high savings. Urban child rearing ratio has a positive effect on the consumption rate of urban residents, and is effective at the level of 1% significance. The ratio of raising children to children has a positive effect on the consumption rate of urban residents, and is effective at the level of 10% significance. Urban old-age dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on the consumption rate of urban residents, while town old-age dependency ratio has a negative impact on urban residents' consumption rate (western sample is not significant). The reason is that the motive of bequest in eastern urban area is the strongest, the middle part is the second, and the west is the weakest. The effect of population aging on consumption rate is the most obvious in eastern urban areas. In order to effectively improve the consumption rate of residents in various regions of our country, we should reduce the income gap between residents in the east, middle and western regions and the income gap between urban and rural residents, accelerate the reform of the social security system, and effectively reduce the uncertainty of future income. Weakens the residents' incentive to save on a precautionary basis. As an economic means to regulate the distribution of wealth, the levying of estate tax can raise the starting point of estate tax or levy progressive inheritance tax. In addition, consider the appropriate relaxation of family planning policy, increase child rearing ratio, thereby increasing the consumption rate.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.2
本文编号：2321668
[Abstract]:On the basis of OLG model, this paper introduces expectation and takes into account the inheritance motivation of Chinese residents, establishes a three-stage iterative model of labor income as "childish expectation" and "rational expectation", and theoretically analyzes the effect of population structure on consumption. The conclusions are as follows: the consumption rate is proportional to the child raising coefficient, the resident consumption rate is proportional to the old age dependency coefficient, and the resident consumption rate is directly proportional to the income growth rate. Then, by collecting the provincial panel data of urban and rural residents from 1995 to 2009, the fixed panel data model of sub-region (east, middle, west) and urban and rural areas (town and countryside) is established, and various estimation methods (No weights, are compared. The empirical results of Cross section weights, Cross section SUR). In the consumption model of rural residents in the eastern, central and western parts of the sample, the growth rate of residents' income has a positive effect on the consumption rate of rural residents, and has passed the significance test at the level of 1% significance. The ratio of children to children has a positive effect on the consumption rate of rural residents, and is effective at the level of 1%. However, the elderly dependency ratio has a negative effect on the consumption rate of rural residents only in the western part of the sample model. The reason is that the aging process of the rural population in the central and eastern rural areas is faster than that in the western rural areas, so the proportion of young people living in the western rural areas is larger, the motivation of preventive savings is strong, and the corresponding inhibition to the consumption rate of residents is greater. In the eastern part of the sample consumption model of urban residents, the growth rate of residents' income has no significant effect on the consumption rate of urban residents. This explains China's long-standing phenomenon of high growth and high savings. Urban child rearing ratio has a positive effect on the consumption rate of urban residents, and is effective at the level of 1% significance. The ratio of raising children to children has a positive effect on the consumption rate of urban residents, and is effective at the level of 10% significance. Urban old-age dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on the consumption rate of urban residents, while town old-age dependency ratio has a negative impact on urban residents' consumption rate (western sample is not significant). The reason is that the motive of bequest in eastern urban area is the strongest, the middle part is the second, and the west is the weakest. The effect of population aging on consumption rate is the most obvious in eastern urban areas. In order to effectively improve the consumption rate of residents in various regions of our country, we should reduce the income gap between residents in the east, middle and western regions and the income gap between urban and rural residents, accelerate the reform of the social security system, and effectively reduce the uncertainty of future income. Weakens the residents' incentive to save on a precautionary basis. As an economic means to regulate the distribution of wealth, the levying of estate tax can raise the starting point of estate tax or levy progressive inheritance tax. In addition, consider the appropriate relaxation of family planning policy, increase child rearing ratio, thereby increasing the consumption rate.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;C924.2
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