我国人口红利与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-11-20 05:05

【摘要】：二战后30-40年，以日本和亚洲“四小龙”为代表的东亚地区，克服了资源贫乏对经济增长的制约，通过经济起飞改善了人民生活，实现了社会进步。东亚经济发展所取得的骄人成就被誉为“东亚奇迹”。无独有偶，东亚经济起飞都发生在人口结构从高出生率、高死亡率和低死亡率向低出生率、低死亡率和低自然增长率的迅速转变阶段。现有对东亚奇迹的研究成果表明，充分利用了人口结构转变带来的有利时机是东亚经济增长出现奇迹的重要原因之一。人口结构转变形成的有利于经济增长的时机被称为“人口红利窗口”。同样地，人口红利也是“中国奇迹”出现的重要原因之一。在人口转变过程中，经济社会进入了劳动年龄人口占总人口比重较高、老少被抚养人口占总人口比重较低的对社会经济发展十分有利的“黄金期”，这就是所谓的“人口红利”。人口因素与经济增长之间的关系历来受经济学家和人口学家的关注，但是二者关系到底怎样，人口因素如何作用于经济增长？这些问题不断引起专家、学者们的关注与研究，但是结论仍存在争议。其原因是理论研究与实证分析较少，不具有说服力。根据中国人口与研究中心的人口结构预测的结果显示，现阶段我国仍处于人口红利期，随着老年人口的增加，老年抚养比的上升，人口红利效应将逐渐减弱，中国经济面临又一次挑战。那么，如何充分利用现阶段的人口红利，如何寻求新的经济增长源泉来维持其高速发展的需要，便是本文研究的出发点和目的所在。本文着重从理论和实证两方面研究人口结构变动对经济增长的影响，来揭示二者之间的关系。同时，在此基础上研究未来我国人口结构变动对经济增长产生怎么样的影响，并据此提出一些建议。本文首先介绍了人口红利的概念、基本特征以及实现条件。其次，讲述了人口红利对经济增长的内在作用机制，并实证分析考察了人口红利对中国经济增长的贡献。随后，分析了随着人口结构的演进未来人口的变动对经济持续增长的影响。从目前我国的现实可以看出我国人口红利的利用并不充分。在此基础上，本文提出要将潜在的机遇转换为现实的经济增长和财富积累，需要实施就业优先战略和转变经济发展等方式以充分利用和延长人口红利，，实现中国经济持续发展。
[Abstract]:From 30 to 40 years after World War II, East Asia, represented by Japan and the four Little Dragons in Asia, overcame the constraints of resource scarcity on economic growth, improved people's living standards and realized social progress through economic take-off. The remarkable achievements of East Asian economic development have been praised as the "East Asian miracle". Coincidentally, the economic take-off of East Asia occurred at the stage of rapid transition of population structure from high birth rate, high mortality rate and low mortality rate to low birth rate, low mortality rate and low natural growth rate. The current research on the East Asian miracle shows that it is one of the important reasons for the miracle of economic growth in East Asia to make full use of the favorable opportunity brought by the demographic change. The opportunity of economic growth formed by demographic transformation is called "demographic dividend window". Similarly, the demographic dividend is one of the main reasons for the Chinese miracle. In the process of population transformation, economic and social development has entered a "golden period" in which the proportion of working-age population to the total population is relatively high, and the proportion of the dependent population of the old and the young in the total population is relatively low, which is very beneficial to the social and economic development. This is the so-called "demographic dividend". The relationship between population factors and economic growth has always been concerned by economists and demographers, but what is the relationship between the two factors, and how do population factors act on economic growth? These problems have attracted the attention and research of experts and scholars, but the conclusions are still controversial. The reason is that theoretical research and empirical analysis are few and not persuasive. According to the population structure forecast of China's population and Research Center, China is still in the demographic dividend period at present. With the increase of the elderly population and the increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly, the effect of the demographic dividend will gradually weaken. China's economy faces another challenge. Therefore, how to make full use of the current demographic dividend and how to find new sources of economic growth to maintain its rapid development is the starting point and purpose of this paper. This paper focuses on the theoretical and empirical studies on the impact of population structure changes on economic growth to reveal the relationship between the two. At the same time, on the basis of this, the paper studies how the population structure change will affect the economic growth in the future, and puts forward some suggestions. This paper first introduces the concept of demographic dividend, basic characteristics and realization conditions. Secondly, the paper describes the internal mechanism of demographic dividend on economic growth, and examines the contribution of demographic dividend to China's economic growth. Then, the paper analyzes the impact of the future population changes on the economic growth with the evolution of population structure. From the present reality of our country, we can see that the utilization of population dividend in our country is not sufficient. On this basis, this paper puts forward that in order to transform the potential opportunities into real economic growth and wealth accumulation, it is necessary to implement the employment priority strategy and transform the economic development in order to make full use of and prolong the population dividend and realize the sustainable development of China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：C92-05

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